Nuggets vs Spurs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 12, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Nuggets are -12.5 favorites vs. the Spurs
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSSW | ALT

The Denver Nuggets visit Frost Bank Center to take on the San Antonio Spurs on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in San Antonio, TX.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Nuggets vs Spurs Over/Under is 222.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 37-41 against the spread, while the Spurs are 42-38 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Spurs Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets-10.5 -110O 222.5 -115-550
San Antonio Spurs +10.5 -110U 222.5 -105+400

Spurs vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 84.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Spurs.

Spurs vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Spurs will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 61.5% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 100 games (+27.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 58 of their last 93 games (+18.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 20 games (+16.90 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 44 away games (+16.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 91 games (+15.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 21 games (+14.80 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 32 of their last 58 games (+14.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 80 games (+11.85 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 37-41 (-8.1 Units / -9.2% ROI).

  • 56-24 against the Moneyline (+16.95 Units / 5.63% ROI)
  • 32-46 against the Over for game total points (-18.6 Units / -21.12% ROI)
  • 46-32 against the Under for game total points (+10.85 Units / 12.34% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Spurs have gone 42-38 (+0.2 Units / 0.23% ROI).

  • 20-60 against the Moneyline (-13.55 Units / -15.79% ROI)
  • 38-40 against the Over for game total points (-6 Units / -6.82% ROI)
  • 40-38 against the Under for game total points (-1.8 Units / -2.05% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 79 games (-23.20 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 33 of their last 79 games (-18.85 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the 2Q Spread in 34 of their last 80 games (-18.60 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 67 games (-17.30 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the 3Q Spread in 34 of their last 80 games (-16.85 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 98 games (-25.90 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 100 games (-24.75 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 91 games (-24.40 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 44 away games (-22.20 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 15 away games (-15.75 Units / -68% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the San Antonio Spurs

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 27-5 (.844) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Spurs have allowed opponents to shoot 37% from three this season — 8th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets are 26-6 (.812) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .576

The Nuggets are 13-1 (.929) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .567

San Antonio Spurs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Spurs were winless (0-36) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .297

The Spurs are 1-11 (.083) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .399

The Spurs are 1-9 (.100) when forcing fewer than 5 steals this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .386

The Spurs were winless (0-35) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .188

Injury Report: Spurs vs. NuggetsFriday‘s Game, Apr. 12

  • Marcus Morris Sr. (San Antonio Spurs): Not Injury Related, Out
  • Charles Bassey (San Antonio Spurs): Knee, Out For Season
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.5 (1,270 assists/ 513 TOs) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (2,352 assists/ 1,009 TOs) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

San Antonio Spurs Offensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs averaged 1.22 points per shot (9,269 points/7,593 shots) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Spurs averaged 1.19 points per shot (4,551 points/3,809 shots) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The Spurs had 21.2 free throw attempts per game last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

The Spurs are shooting 34% from three (502/1,476) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 5.6 blocks per game (448 blocks/80 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Nuggets have averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,879 rebounds/80 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (567 steals/80 games) this season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Nuggets have averaged 5.1 blocks per game (410 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

San Antonio Spurs Defensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs allowed 123.1 points per game (10,092 points/82 games) last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 114.7

The Spurs allowed opponents to shoot 40% from three (517/1,300) in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Spurs have averaged 6.4 blocks per game (513 blocks/80 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Spurs allowed an eFG% of 58% in the second half last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%


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