Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 10

  • The Thunder are -8.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets
  • Total (Over/Under): 238.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBAt | ALT | KTVD | FDOK

The Denver Nuggets visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Oklahoma City, OK, USA.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-115).

The Nuggets vs Thunder Over/Under is 238.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 31-32 against the spread, while the Thunder are 38-23 against the spread.


Bet now on Thunder vs Nuggets and all NBA games with BetMGM


Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+8.5 -105O 238.5 -115+290
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 -115U 238.5 -105-375

Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Monday‘s game with 78.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Thunder.

Thunder vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Thunder will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 54.9% confidence.


Bet now on Thunder vs Nuggets and all NBA games with BetMGM


  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 62 games (+14.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.10 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+9.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+8.75 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 92 games (+20.30 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 48 of their last 79 games (+18.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 30 of their last 38 games (+15.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games (+13.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games (+12.90 Units / 32% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 31-32 (-4.2 Units / -5.97% ROI).

  • 41-23 against the Moneyline (+1.35 Units / 0.75% ROI)
  • 37-27 against the Over for game total points (+7.3 Units / 10.37% ROI)
  • 27-37 against the Under for game total points (-13.7 Units / -19.46% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 38-23 (+12.7 Units / 17.76% ROI).

  • 53-12 against the Moneyline (+13.9 Units / 3.81% ROI)
  • 36-28 against the Over for game total points (+5.2 Units / 7.27% ROI)
  • 28-36 against the Under for game total points (-11.6 Units / -16.22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 46 games (-20.00 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 37 of their last 87 games (-17.82 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 61 games (-17.25 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 81 games (-16.55 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 37 games (-16.50 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 79 games (-27.25 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 48 of their last 94 games (-26.65 Units / -12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 47 away games (-25.11 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 22 of their last 62 games (-23.70 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 1H Spread in 36 of their last 86 games (-21.85 Units / -22% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Nuggets are 26-5 (.839) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .552

The Nuggets are 37-20 (.649) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .508

The Nuggets were 26-9 (.743) when they win the turnover margin last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Nuggets were 42-12 (.778) when winning the rebounding margin last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Thunder are 18-4 (.818) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .442

The Thunder are 39-5 (.886) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .537

The Thunder are 96-31 (.756) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

The Thunder are 39-7 (.848) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 2nd-best in the NBA. The Nuggets have allowed 116.5 points per game this season — T-7th-worst in the NBA.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 61.9 points in the paint per game (1,980 points/32 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.6

The Nuggets have averaged 10.8 fast break points per game (680 points/63 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.0

The Nuggets are shooting 41% from three (427/1,041) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets have averaged 59.2 points in the paint per game (3,728 points/63 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.9

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder had a TS% of 55% in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have averaged 11.9 turnovers per game (749 turnovers/63 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4

The Thunder have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (1,690 assists/ 749 TOs) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets averaged 5.6 blocks per game (457 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Nuggets have averaged 7.6 steals per game (1,099 steals/145 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8

The Nuggets have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (5,280 rebounds/145 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Nuggets averaged 7.1 steals per game (585 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 10.8 steals per game (679 steals/63 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2

The Thunder have averaged 9.5 steals per game (1,373 steals/145 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8

The Thunder have averaged 9.4 steals per game (674 steals/72 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9

The Thunder have allowed a TS% of 48% this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%


Bet now on Thunder vs Nuggets and all NBA games with BetMGM


Bet on NBA Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated NBA betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

First Bet Offer BetMGM State Promo Pages $1,500

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.