- The Thunder are -7.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets
- Total (Over/Under): 243.5 points
- Watch the game on ABC | ESPN+
The Denver Nuggets visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Oklahoma City, OK, USA.
The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Nuggets vs Thunder Over/Under is 243.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 31-31 against the spread, while the Thunder are 37-23 against the spread.
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Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Denver Nuggets | +7.5 -110 | O 243.5 -110 | +260 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | -7.5 -110 | U 243.5 -110 | -325 |
Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Sunday‘s game with 79.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Thunder.
Thunder vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.3% confidence.
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Nuggets Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 61 games (+15.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+10.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 34 games (+9.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Thunder Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 91 games (+19.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 47 of their last 78 games (+17.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 36 games (+14.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 37 games (+14.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+12.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Denver Nuggets Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 31-31 (-3.1 Units / -4.47% ROI).
- 41-22 against the Moneyline (+2.35 Units / 1.3% ROI)
- 37-26 against the Over for game total points (+8.4 Units / 12.12% ROI)
- 26-37 against the Under for game total points (-14.7 Units / -21.21% ROI)
Oklahoma City Thunder Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 37-23 (+11.7 Units / 16.62% ROI).
- 52-12 against the Moneyline (+12.9 Units / 3.56% ROI)
- 36-27 against the Over for game total points (+6.3 Units / 8.95% ROI)
- 27-36 against the Under for game total points (-12.6 Units / -17.9% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Thunder:
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 45 games (-18.95 Units / -37% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 60 games (-18.25 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 80 games (-17.55 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 36 games (-17.50 Units / -44% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (-17.00 Units / -12% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Nuggets:
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 78 games (-28.65 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 48 of their last 93 games (-25.65 Units / -12% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 61 games (-24.70 Units / -35% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 46 away games (-24.11 Units / -34% ROI)
- The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 1H Spread in 35 of their last 85 games (-22.85 Units / -23% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Denver Nuggets
- Keys to Winning for the Oklahoma City Thunder
- Player Injuries for Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Denver Nuggets Offensive stats
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive stats
- Denver Nuggets Defensive stats
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive stats
Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder
The Nuggets are 0-11 (.000) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2023-24 season — T-worst in the NBA. The Thunder have allowed 110.0 points per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th-best in the NBA.
The Nuggets were 37-3 (.925) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .789
The Nuggets are 46-15 (.754) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540
The Nuggets are 37-20 (.649) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .508
Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets
The Thunder are 18-4 (.818) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .442
The Thunder are 26-3 (.897) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550
The Thunder are 80-19 (.808) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540
The Thunder are 57-9 (.864) when forcing 10 or more steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .585
Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have averaged 61.9 points in the paint per game (1,980 points/32 games) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.6
The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.6 (217 assists/ 82 TOs) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7
The Nuggets are shooting 41% from three (427/1,041) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
The Nuggets have averaged 59.2 points in the paint per game (3,728 points/63 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.9
Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends
The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
The Thunder had a TS% of 55% in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%
The Thunder shot 39% from three (120/305) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%
The Thunder have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (1,690 assists/ 749 TOs) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8
Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends
The Nuggets have averaged 37.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,334 rebounds/63 games) this season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4
The Nuggets have averaged 7.6 steals per game (1,099 steals/145 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8
The Nuggets averaged 5.6 blocks per game (457 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
The Nuggets have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (5,280 rebounds/145 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends
The Thunder have averaged 9.5 steals per game (1,373 steals/145 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.8
The Thunder have averaged 9.4 steals per game (674 steals/72 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9
The Thunder have averaged 10.8 steals per game (679 steals/63 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.2
The Thunder have allowed 42.5 points in the paint per game (1,318 points/31 games) on the road this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 49.2
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