Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 10, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Timberwolves are -4.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets
  • Total (Over/Under): 204.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Denver Nuggets visit Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.

The Timberwolves are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Nuggets vs Timberwolves Over/Under is 205.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 40-47 against the spread, while the Timberwolves are 46-41 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+3.5 -110O 205.5 -110+135
Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 -110U 205.5 -110-165

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Timberwolves will win Friday‘s game with 64.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Timberwolves.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Timberwolves will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 95 games (+17.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 58 of their last 97 games (+16.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 99 games (+16.55 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 48 away games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+12.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 48 of their last 76 games (+16.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 85 games (+16.80 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games (+15.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 82 games (+11.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 40-47 (-11.7 Units / -11.94% ROI).

  • 61-28 against the Moneyline (+9.7 Units / 2.94% ROI)
  • 35-52 against the Over for game total points (-22.2 Units / -22.66% ROI)
  • 52-35 against the Under for game total points (+13.55 Units / 13.85% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 46-41 (+0.8 Units / 0.83% ROI).

  • 62-26 against the Moneyline (+15.35 Units / 5.16% ROI)
  • 45-43 against the Over for game total points (-2.3 Units / -2.38% ROI)
  • 43-45 against the Under for game total points (-6.5 Units / -6.71% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 41 of their last 79 games (-26.65 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 62 games (-24.70 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1Q Spread in 32 of their last 81 games (-23.50 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 82 games (-23.40 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 36 games at home (-20.00 Units / -48% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 97 games (-30.40 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 99 games (-26.90 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 95 games (-24.75 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (-20.80 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 48 away games (-20.35 Units / -37% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Nuggets are 25-8 (.758) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Nuggets are 27-6 (.818) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .579

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Timberwolves are 25-8 (.758) when they win the turnover margin this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Timberwolves were 16-2 (.889) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .729

The Timberwolves are 25-7 (.781) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .683

The Timberwolves were 14-17 (.452) when scoring 15 or more second chance points last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

Injury Report: Timberwolves vs. NuggetsFriday‘s Game, May 10

  • Jaylen Clark (Minnesota Timberwolves): Achilles, Out For Season
  • Collin Gillespie (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out For Season

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (2,497 assists/ 1,094 TOs) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Nuggets shot 50% (3,574/7,088) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves are shooting 43% (368/853) in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Timberwolves had a TS% of 52% last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Timberwolves averaged 26.2 assists per game (2,145 assists/82 games) last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.3

The Timberwolves are shooting 38% from three (515/1,359) in the second half this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (585 steals/82 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Nuggets have averaged 5.6 blocks per game (457 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Nuggets have averaged 35.5 defensive rebounds per game (5,822 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 36.2 defensive rebounds per game (2,971 rebounds/82 games) this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Timberwolves have allowed an eFG% of 50% at home this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%

The Timberwolves averaged 5.4 blocks per game (444 blocks/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Timberwolves have averaged 7.9 steals per game (647 steals/82 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.