Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 12

  • The Timberwolves are -2.5 favorites vs. the Nuggets
  • Total (Over/Under): 204.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Denver Nuggets visit Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.

The Timberwolves are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Nuggets vs Timberwolves Over/Under is 204.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 41-47 against the spread, while the Timberwolves are 46-42 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets+2.5 -105O 204.5 -110+125
Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 -115U 204.5 -110-150

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Timberwolves will win Sunday‘s game with 56.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Nuggets and Timberwolves.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+17.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 99 games (+16.80 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 96 games (+16.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+13.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 54 of their last 90 games (+12.40 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 63 games (+16.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 48 of their last 77 games (+15.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 86 games (+15.30 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+10.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 83 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 41-47 (-10.7 Units / -10.8% ROI).

  • 62-28 against the Moneyline (+11 Units / 3.32% ROI)
  • 36-52 against the Over for game total points (-21.2 Units / -21.4% ROI)
  • 52-36 against the Under for game total points (+12.45 Units / 12.58% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 46-42 (-0.3 Units / -0.31% ROI).

  • 62-27 against the Moneyline (+13.85 Units / 4.63% ROI)
  • 46-43 against the Over for game total points (-1.3 Units / -1.33% ROI)
  • 43-46 against the Under for game total points (-7.6 Units / -7.76% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 41 of their last 80 games (-28.10 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 63 games (-25.85 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1Q Spread in 32 of their last 82 games (-24.65 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 83 games (-22.40 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 37 games at home (-21.15 Units / -50% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 98 games (-31.55 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 96 games (-25.90 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 98 games (-25.80 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (-19.70 Units / -12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 17 of their last 48 away games (-18.25 Units / -33% ROI)

Jump to:

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 26-9 (.743) when they win the turnover margin this season — 3rd-best in the NBA. The Timberwolves have averaged 14.2 turnovers per game this season — 9th-highest in the NBA.

The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Nuggets are 27-6 (.818) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .579

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

Keys to the game – home

Injury Report: Timberwolves vs. NuggetsSunday‘s Game, May 12

  • Jaylen Clark (Minnesota Timberwolves): Achilles, Out For Season
  • Collin Gillespie (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out For Season

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

Away Team Offense Stories

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves are shooting 43% (368/853) in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Timberwolves averaged 1.32 points per shot (9,494 points/7,167 shots) last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Timberwolves have an eFG% of 56% this season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

The Timberwolves shot 49% (3,515/7,167) last season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 5.6 blocks per game (457 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Nuggets have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have blocked 457 shots this season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets have allowed 11.3 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.6

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 36.2 defensive rebounds per game (2,971 rebounds/82 games) this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Timberwolves have allowed an eFG% of 52% this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

The Timberwolves have allowed an eFG% of 50% at home this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%

The Timberwolves have allowed 103.7 points per game (4,253 points/41 games) at home this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 113.1


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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.