Pacers vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 28

  • The are favorites vs. the
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on FDIN | SUN

The Indiana Pacers visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Miami, FL, FL, USA.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Pacers vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Pacers are 27-28 against the spread, while the Heat are 24-32 against the spread.


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Pacers vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Indiana Pacers O
Miami Heat U

Heat vs Pacers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Pacers will win Friday‘s game with 79.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Pacers and Heat.

Heat vs Pacers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pacers will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 63.8% confidence.


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  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 32 games (+21.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 49 games (+13.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.37 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 79 games (+13.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 52 of their last 91 games (+12.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 49 of their last 86 games (+12.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games (+12.30 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+10.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.85 Units / 28% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 27-28 (-3.8 Units / -6.05% ROI).

  • 33-24 against the Moneyline (+5.1 Units / 4.35% ROI)
  • 30-24 against the Over for game total points (+3.6 Units / 5.74% ROI)
  • 24-30 against the Under for game total points (-9 Units / -14.35% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 24-32 (-11.2 Units / -17.86% ROI).

  • 27-30 against the Moneyline (-8.4 Units / -8.69% ROI)
  • 31-26 against the Over for game total points (+2.4 Units / 3.83% ROI)
  • 26-31 against the Under for game total points (-8.1 Units / -12.92% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 49 games (-17.48 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 78 games (-16.50 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 37 of their last 87 games (-15.80 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 43 games (-14.80 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 22 of their last 53 games (-14.00 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 97 games (-25.10 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 49 games (-21.05 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 85 games (-20.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 94 games (-19.75 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 72 games (-18.79 Units / -19% ROI)

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Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pacers are 0-6 (.000) when scoring fewer than 100 points since the start of the 2023-24 season — T-worst in the NBA. The Heat have allowed 109.3 points per game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 4th-best in the NBA.

The Pacers are 26-12 (.684) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .456

The Pacers were 3-8 (.273) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .395

The Pacers are 11-10 (.524) when attempting 15 or less free throws since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .438

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

The Heat are 16-2 (.889) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse this season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .819

The Heat are 6-17 (.261) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .385

The Heat are 19-45 (.297) when allowing 110 or more points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .340

The Heat are 24-6 (.800) when assisting on 30 or more field goals since the start of the 2023-24 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .698

Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers averaged 61.5 points per game (5,039 points/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

The Pacers averaged 29.0 points in the paint per game (2,374 points/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.6

The Pacers have averaged 5.0 second chance points per game (272 points/54 games) in the first half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.9

The Pacers averaged 58.0 points in the paint per game (2,376 points/41 games) on the road last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 45.1 points in the paint per game (1,850 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.7

The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Heat averaged 47.2 points in the paint per game (3,870 points/82 games) last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.3

Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pacers averaged 33.7 defensive rebounds per game (2,763 rebounds/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pacers allowed 58.4 points in the paint per game (4,788 points/82 games) last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 50.3

The Pacers have averaged 5.3 blocks per game (284 blocks/54 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Pacers have averaged 34.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,881 rebounds/54 games) this season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.8 blocks per game (202 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (218 blocks/64 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (482 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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