- The Heat are -10.5 favorites vs. the Raptors
- Total (Over/Under): 223.5 points
- Watch the game on SUN | SNET
The Toronto Raptors visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami, FL.
The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-115).
The Raptors vs Heat Over/Under is 224.5 total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Raptors are 17-8 against the spread, while the Heat are 11-11 against the spread.
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Raptors vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Toronto Raptors | +9.5 -105 | O 224.5 -110 | +375 |
| Miami Heat | -9.5 -115 | U 224.5 -110 | -500 |
Heat vs Raptors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Thursday‘s game with 72.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Raptors and Heat.
Heat vs Raptors Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Raptors will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 70.0% confidence.
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Raptors Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Toronto Raptors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 24 of their last 53 games (+13.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Toronto Raptors have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 away games (+12.71 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Toronto Raptors have covered the Spread in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Toronto Raptors have covered the 1H Spread in 32 of their last 53 games (+9.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Toronto Raptors have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+8.77 Units / 27% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.77 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+14.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 64 games (+10.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 18 of their last 27 games (+10.07 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 19 of their last 27 games (+9.91 Units / 32% ROI)
Toronto Raptors Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Raptors have gone 17-8 (+8.2 Units / 29.82% ROI).
- 7-18 against the Moneyline (-5.3 Units / -21.12% ROI)
- 12-13 against the Over for game total points (-2.3 Units / -8.36% ROI)
- 13-12 against the Under for game total points (-0.2 Units / -0.73% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 11-11 (-1.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- 12-10 against the Moneyline (+1.3 Units / 3.47% ROI)
- 13-9 against the Over for game total points (+3.1 Units / 12.81% ROI)
- 9-13 against the Under for game total points (-5.3 Units / -21.9% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 81 games (-25.78 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 28 of their last 72 games (-21.45 Units / -26% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 33 of their last 82 games (-21.10 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 80 games (-19.40 Units / -21% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 88 games (-17.25 Units / -17% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Raptors:
- The Toronto Raptors have only hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 83 games (-28.45 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Toronto Raptors have only hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 79 games (-17.40 Units / -19% ROI)
- The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 84 games (-14.11 Units / -15% ROI)
- The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 41 away games (-13.00 Units / -27% ROI)
- The Toronto Raptors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 75 games (-12.65 Units / -15% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Toronto Raptors
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat
- Toronto Raptors Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Toronto Raptors Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Toronto Raptors: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Raptors are 1-7 (.125) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .388
The Raptors are 10-43 (.189) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .447
The Raptors were 9-35 (.205) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .448
The Raptors are 18-52 (.257) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Toronto Raptors
The Heat are undefeated (9-0) when forcing their opponent to shoot 40% or worse from the field since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .901
The Heat were 16-4 (.800) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572
The Heat are 8-2 (.800) when winning the rebounding margin this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .607
The Heat were 18-7 (.720) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554
Toronto Raptors Offensive Stats & Trends
The Raptors have averaged 18.2 fast break points per game (3,433 points/189 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.4
The Raptors have averaged 19.7 fast break points per game (1,871 points/95 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.8
The Raptors averaged 20.7 fast break points per game (847 points/41 games) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.8
The Raptors have averaged 8.6 fast break points per game (1,617 points/189 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.8
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 53.2 points per game (9,892 points/186 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4
The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6
The Heat are shooting 83% from the free throw line (1,747/2,102) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 79%
The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%
Toronto Raptors Defensive Stats & Trends
The Raptors have averaged 4.7 blocks per game (508 blocks/107 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2
The Raptors have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (230 blocks/53 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Raptors have averaged 33.2 defensive rebounds per game (6,276 rebounds/189 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3
The Raptors averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,769 rebounds/82 games) last season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (301 blocks/93 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
The Heat averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1
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