Raptors vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 11

  • The Nuggets are -14.5 favorites vs. the Raptors
  • Total (Over/Under): 231.5 points
  • Watch the game on ALT | SNT

The Toronto Raptors visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -15.5 (-110).

The Raptors vs Nuggets Over/Under is 229.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Raptors are 29-34 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 29-33 against the spread.


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Raptors vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Toronto Raptors+15.5 -110O 229.5 -110+875
Denver Nuggets -15.5 -110U 229.5 -110-1600

Nuggets vs Raptors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Monday‘s game with 93.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Raptors and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Raptors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Raptors will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 51.2% confidence.


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  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 36 away games (+13.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 23 away games (+12.40 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games (+12.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 63 of their last 98 games (+24.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 85 games (+23.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 97 games (+21.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 47 of their last 77 games (+14.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 32 games at home (+13.45 Units / 20% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Raptors have gone 29-34 (-8.4 Units / -11.92% ROI).

  • 23-41 against the Moneyline (-23.4 Units / -24.7% ROI)
  • 33-30 against the Over for game total points (+0 Units / 0% ROI)
  • 30-33 against the Under for game total points (-6.25 Units / -8.88% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 29-33 (-7.4 Units / -10.46% ROI).

  • 44-20 against the Moneyline (+11.15 Units / 5.26% ROI)
  • 24-39 against the Over for game total points (-18.9 Units / -26.87% ROI)
  • 39-24 against the Under for game total points (+12.6 Units / 17.9% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 98 games (-35.05 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 97 games (-31.00 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 92 games (-21.60 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 29 of their last 77 games (-20.65 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 77 games (-19.55 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 76 games (-27.95 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 69 games (-21.70 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 79 games (-19.40 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only covered the 1Q Spread in 27 of their last 69 games (-17.90 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 38 away games (-17.00 Units / -40% ROI)

Jump to:

Toronto Raptors: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Raptors are 9-26 (.257) when losing the rebounding margin this season — 7th-worst in the NBA. The Nuggets have averaged 52.4 rebounds/game this season — T-8th-highest in the NBA.

The Raptors are 11-16 (.407) when they lose the turnover margin this season — T-9th-worst in the NBA. The Nuggets have averaged 12.7 turnovers per game this season — 7th-lowest in the NBA.

The Raptors were undefeated (8-0) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700

The Raptors were 13-4 (.765) when shooting 40% or better from three last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .702

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Toronto Raptors

The Nuggets are 21-5 (.808) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 21-4 (.840) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 4th-best in the NBA. The Raptors have allowed opponents to shoot 38% from three this season — 9th-worst in the NBA.

The Nuggets were 24-7 (.774) when they win the turnover margin last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. RaptorsMonday‘s Game, Mar. 11

  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Hunter Tyson (Denver Nuggets): Finger, Out
  • Jamal Murray (Denver Nuggets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Markquis Nowell (Toronto Raptors): Hamstring, Game Time Decision
  • RJ Barrett (Toronto Raptors): Knee, Out

Toronto Raptors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors have averaged 17.7 fast break points per game (2,409 points/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Raptors are shooting 33% from three (276/832) at home this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Raptors averaged 5.8 turnovers per game (476 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Raptors had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (987 assists/ 480 TOs) on the road last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (2,954/5,757) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (1,548 assists/ 682 TOs) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 2.0

Toronto Raptors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors averaged 9.4 steals per game (772 steals/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Raptors averaged 31.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,615 rebounds/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Raptors stole the ball 772 times last season — most among NBA teams

The Raptors have averaged 32.7 defensive rebounds per game (4,451 rebounds/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 6.8 steals per game (365 steals/54 games) this season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Nuggets have allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.5

The Nuggets allowed 11.4 made three-pointers per game last season — tied for 3rd best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.3

The Nuggets have allowed 11.2 made three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.3


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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.