Rockets vs Spurs Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 04, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Rockets (13-49) are -0.5 favorites vs. the Spurs (16-47)
  • Total (Over/Under): 230.5 points
  • Saturday, March 4, 2023 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on CW35 & SportsNet SW

The Houston Rockets visit AT&T Center to take on the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in San Antonio.

The Rockets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -0.5 (-110).

The Rockets vs Spurs Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Rockets are 22-37 against the spread, while the Spurs are 26-37 against the spread.


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Rockets vs. Spurs Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Houston Rockets-0.5 -110O 230.5 -110-110
San Antonio Spurs +0.5 -110U 230.5 -110-110

Spurs vs Rockets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Rockets will win Saturday‘s game with 55.6% confidence.

Spurs vs Rockets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Rockets will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 53.7% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Rockets and Spurs, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 69 games (+12.14 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 19 of their last 26 away games (+11.25 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have covered the 1H Spread in 32 of their last 55 games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.47 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+7.15 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 52 of their last 83 games (+17.01 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games (+9.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have covered the 3Q Spread in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 22-37 (-18.7 Units / -27.42% ROI).

  • 13-49 against the Moneyline (-20.7 Units / -32.7% ROI)
  • 31-31 against the Over for game total points (-3.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 31-31 against the Under for game total points (-3.1 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Spurs have gone 26-37 (-14.7 Units / -21.21% ROI).

  • 16-47 against the Moneyline (-10.3 Units / -16.18% ROI)
  • 34-27 against the Over for game total points (+4.3 Units / 6.2% ROI)
  • 27-34 against the Under for game total points (-10.4 Units / -15.01% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 63 games (-28.78 Units / -45% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 83 games (-27.91 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only covered the 4Q Spread in 22 of their last 63 games (-22.84 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 56 games (-22.00 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 83 games (-21.08 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 78 games (-30.35 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 71 games (-22.47 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the Spread in 22 of their last 63 games (-19.80 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 18 of their last 64 games (-19.72 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 78 games (-19.25 Units / -21% ROI)

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Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the San Antonio Spurs

The Rockets are 3-18 (.143) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .453

The Rockets are 21-77 (.212) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Rockets are 4-38 (.095) when allowing fewer than 8 offense rebounds since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .491

The Rockets are 6-26 (.188) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

San Antonio Spurs: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets

The San Antonio Spurs are 4-30 (.118) when losing the rebounding margin this season — third-worst among NBA teams. The Houston Rockets have averaged 46.5 rebounds per game (2,881 rebounds/62 games) this season — fourth-highest among NBA teams.

The Spurs are 3-56 (.051) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .272

The Spurs are 8-22 (.267) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

The Spurs are 4-30 (.118) when losing the rebounding margin this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .326

Injury Report: Spurs vs. RocketsSaturday‘s Game, Mar. 4

  • Malaki Branham (Spurs): Branham is questionable for Saturday’s (Mar.4) game against Houston.
  • Doug McDermott (Spurs): McDermott is out for Saturday’s (Mar.4) game against Houston.
  • Isaiah Roby (Spurs): Roby hasn’t played since Feb. 13 against Cleveland and remains without a timetable to return.
  • Romeo Langford (Spurs): Langford is questionable for Saturday’s (Mar.4) game against Houston.
  • Khem Birch (Spurs): Birch hasn’t played since Dec. 29 against Memphis and remains without a timetable to return.
  • Keldon Johnson (Spurs): Johnson is doubtful for Saturday’s (Mar.4) game against Houston.
  • TyTy Washington Jr. (Rockets): Washington Jr. is questionable for Saturday’s (Mar.4) game against San Antonio.
  • Jae’Sean Tate (Rockets): Tate is out for Saturday’s (Mar.4) game against San Antonio.

Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (2,464 assists/ 1,620 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (1,396 assists/ 985 TOs) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,630 assists/ 1,121 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (1,659 assists/ 1,178 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

San Antonio Spurs Offensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs have averaged 28.7 points in the paint per game (4,156 points/145 games) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.8

The Spurs have a 21% free throw rate (1,465 free throw attempts/6,827 field goal attempts) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

The Spurs have averaged 54.1 points in the paint per game (3,948 points/73 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.0

The Spurs have averaged 1.21 points per shot (3,573 points/2,964 shots) in the first half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets have averaged 32.9 defensive rebounds per game (7,115 rebounds/216 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

The Rockets have averaged 32.8 defensive rebounds per game (4,721 rebounds/144 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.6

The Rockets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (506 steals/71 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Rockets have allowed 13.6 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.4

San Antonio Spurs Defensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs have averaged 31.3 defensive rebounds per game (1,972 rebounds/63 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.0

The Spurs have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (248 blocks/63 games) this season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Spurs have averaged 33.0 defensive rebounds per game (4,787 rebounds/145 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.6

The Spurs have averaged 7.8 steals per game (566 steals/73 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.