Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 04, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -4.5 favorites vs. the Timberwolves
  • Total (Over/Under): 207.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).

The Timberwolves vs Nuggets Over/Under is 209.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Timberwolves are 44-41 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 40-45 against the spread.


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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Minnesota Timberwolves+4.5 -105O 209.5 -110+165
Denver Nuggets -4.5 -115U 209.5 -110-200

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Saturday‘s game with 64.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Timberwolves and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.8% confidence.


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  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 47 of their last 74 games (+17.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 38 of their last 60 games (+13.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 41 away games (+13.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 41 away games (+11.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 47 of their last 80 games (+11.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 98 games (+22.25 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 98 games (+16.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 56 of their last 95 games (+14.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games (+12.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+12.70 Units / 34% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 44-41 (-1.2 Units / -1.27% ROI).

  • 60-26 against the Moneyline (+11.35 Units / 3.84% ROI)
  • 45-41 against the Over for game total points (-0.1 Units / -0.11% ROI)
  • 41-45 against the Under for game total points (-8.5 Units / -8.99% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 40-45 (-9.5 Units / -9.92% ROI).

  • 61-26 against the Moneyline (+14.4 Units / 4.42% ROI)
  • 35-50 against the Over for game total points (-20 Units / -20.89% ROI)
  • 50-35 against the Under for game total points (+11.55 Units / 12.08% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 95 games (-28.05 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 98 games (-25.80 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 38 of their last 93 games (-24.60 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 31 of their last 58 games (-19.15 Units / -12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 92 games (-16.50 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 40 of their last 77 games (-27.65 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1Q Spread in 31 of their last 79 games (-23.35 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 80 games (-23.25 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 60 games (-22.40 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 72 games (-19.80 Units / -24% ROI)

Jump to:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

Keys to the game – away

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

Keys to the game – home

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesSaturday‘s Game, May 4

  • Collin Gillespie (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out For Season
  • Jaylen Clark (Minnesota Timberwolves): Achilles, Out For Season

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

Away Team Offense Stories

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 50% (3,574/7,088) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 28.9 assists per game (2,369 assists/82 games) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.3

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have allowed a TS% of 49% this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%

The Timberwolves have allowed an eFG% of 50% in the second half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 54%

The Timberwolves have allowed an average of 1.21 points per shot (4,222 points/3,480 shots) in the second half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.31

The Timberwolves have averaged 7.9 steals per game (647 steals/82 games) this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have averaged 7.1 steals per game (585 steals/82 games) this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Nuggets allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (449/1,382) at home last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Nuggets have averaged 5.6 blocks per game (457 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.