- Get expert betting picks & predictions for today's top NBA games.
- I bet over 17.5 points for San Antonio’s Devin Vassell.
- I bet over 2.5 assists for Golden State’s Jonathan Kuminga.
A new NBA regular season is upon us, so bookmark this page for daily expert betting picks and predictions involving over/under totals and player prop markets.
Read on for NBA betting picks and predictions based on the latest NBA odds at the online sportsbook for Thursday’s schedule:
NBA Predictions Over/Under Today
My best over/under prediction today is under 241.5 points (-110) for the Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies matchup.
This total is a touch high, which is likely why it has dropped a couple points overnight. The Grizzlies rank sixth in defensive rating this season, while the Kings have been a league-average defense and are 18th in pace.
I’d bet this under at 241 or better on the highest total of Thursday’s NBA slate.
Best Bet: Kings vs. Grizzlies Under 241.5 (-110)
NBA Prop Bet Predictions Today: Devin Vassell
Based on the latest NBA betting lines, I’m betting over 17.5 points (-115) for San Antonio Spurs guard Devin Vassell against the Chicago Bulls as my favorite player prop for Thursday’s NBA slate.
Vassell averages 17.9 points per game this season, clearing this mark with consecutive 20-plus point performances. He has a 30% usage rate without center Victor Wembanyama, who has been ruled out for this game.
The Bulls are a favorable matchup because of their top-ranked pace in the league, creating more opportunities to record counting stats. I project Vassell to flirt with 20 points in San Antonio.
Best Bet: Devin Vassell Over 17.5 points (-115) vs. Bulls
NBA Prop Bet Predictions Today: Jonathan Kuminga
According to the updated NBA odds, I’m betting over 2.5 assists (+100) for Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga against the Houston Rockets due to his expected role without Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.
If you listened to the first edition of the Speed Betting podcast, you know I was eying Kuminga’s points prop after he earned the start on Tuesday. He scored 19 points to clear his over (15.5) while commanding a 25.7% usage rating.
But oddsmakers have adjusted Kuminga’s points prop to 18.5 without Curry, forcing me to look elsewhere for value. Kuminga’s usage rating is 30% without Curry and Green, suggesting the offense will run through him on Thursday.
I find it interesting that Kuminga’s assists prop remains at 2.5, providing value on this over via the latest basketball odds. I project him to finish with three dimes against Houston.
Best Bet: Jonathan Kuminga Over 2.5 assists (+100)
NBA Best Bets Today, Dec. 5
Below are my best bets for today’s NBA schedule. All my bets are tracked via multiple third-party platforms. That information can be found by following me on Bluesky via @shanejackson.bsky.social.
| Game | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kings vs. Grizzlies | Under 241.5 | -110 |
| Bulls vs. Spurs | Devin Vassell Over 17.5 points | -115 |
| Rockets vs. Warriors | Jonathan Kuminga Over 2.5 assists | +100 |
How Often Do Favorites Cover in NBA Betting?
Favorites covered the spread in 50% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The New York Knicks were the best team as a favorite over that time, covering in 55% of opportunities.
The Minnesota Timberwolves were the worst favorite, covering in 46% of opportunities.
How Often Do Underdogs Cover in NBA Betting?
Underdogs covered the spread in 50% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Boston Celtics were the best team as an underdog over that time, covering in 59% of opportunities.
The Houston Rockets were the worst underdog, covering in 45% of opportunities.
How Often Do Home Teams Cover in NBA Betting?
Home teams covered the spread in 49.4% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Memphis Grizzlies were the best home team over that time, covering in 53.7% of games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves were the worst home team, covering in 45.1% of games.
How Often Do Road Teams Cover in NBA Betting?
Road teams covered the spread in 50.6% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Celtics were the best road team over that time, covering in 56.1% of games.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were the worst road team, covering in 44.3% of games.
How Often Do Favorites Win in NBA Betting?
Favorites won 68% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Golden State Warriors had the best record as a moneyline favorite over that time, winning 76% of games.
The Detroit Pistons had the worst record as a moneyline favorite, winning 60% of games.
How Often Do Underdogs Win in NBA Betting?
Underdogs won 32% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Boston Celtics had the best record as moneyline underdog over that time, winning 40% of games.
The Pistons had the worst record as a moneyline underdog, winning 26% of games.
How Often Do Home Teams Win in NBA Betting?
Home teams won 57% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Warriors had the best moneyline home record over that time, winning 74% of games.
The Pistons had the worst moneyline home record, winning 43% of games.
How Often Do Road Teams Win in NBA Betting?
Road teams won 43% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Warriors had the best moneyline road record over that time, winning 58% of games.
The Pistons had the moneyline worst road record, winning 29% of games.
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