NBA Picks Today: Betting Predictions for Spreads, Over/Under Totals, & Prop Bets

min read
NBA Daily Betting Picks
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 14, 2024, 1:34 PM
  • How to bet the Nuggets against the Kings, who are playing on a back-to-back.
  • Two total bets to make for Celtics vs. Nets.

Here are NBA betting picks and predictions based on NBA odds for Wednesday‘s schedule. The slate features 13 games, including Warriors vs. Clippers, Nuggets vs. Kings and Magic vs. Knicks. 

NBA Picks Today: Wednesday, Feb. 14

Celtics vs. Nets – 7:40 p.m. ET

Pick: Total Over 229.5 Points (-110) | Celtics Team Total Over 121.5 Points (-115)

Both Boston and Brooklyn are playing on a back-to-back after battling each other Tuesday in Brooklyn. 

History says that in that spot, bettors should take the over. 

Since 2018-19, conference games featuring a home favorite with both teams playing on a back-to-back are 59.2% to the over, including 31-21 over the last three seasons. 

The game on Tuesday landed on 228 points – Boston accounted for 118 – but it was on an over pace to start. 

The first half featured 129 total points, with the second half accounting for only 99 combined points. 

Across three head-to-head meetings between these sides this season, all three have featured at least 228 points. 

The Celtics have proved particularly dominant against the Nets. In those three games, they’ve averaged 121 points per game. 

It’s also a nightmare matchup for the Nets defense, which surrenders the 17th-most threes and allows teams to convert at the seventh-highest rate. 

On the flip side, the Celtics attempt the most threes in the league – 47.2% of their shots come from beyond the arc – and convert at the seventh-highest rate, per dunksandthrees.com. 

As a result, I expect the Celtics can clear their team total on Wednesday while allowing the Nets to do enough – they’ve cleared 107 points in all three games – to send this game over the total.

NBA Picks Today: Wednesday, Feb. 14

Nuggets vs. Kings – 9:10 p.m. ET

Pick: Nuggets 1Q Spread (-1.5, -115)

Sacramento is playing their second night in a row and their third game in four nights. 

That’s a recipe for disaster against a Nuggets team that excels early. 

Denver is 33-21 ATS in the first quarter this season, including 17-8 ATS when they’re at home. 

As for the Kings, they’re 26-27 ATS in the first quarter, including 13-16 ATS away from home. 

Plus, the Nuggets experienced previous success against the Kings. In two head-to-head meetings – both in Sacramento – the Nuggets claimed a first quarter win both times. 

Sacramento has also struggled early against fellow Western Conference sides when playing on back-to-back nights. 

In five qualifying games, they’re a dismal 1-4 ATS in the first quarter. 

From a matchup standpoint, I worry about the Kings defense and expect they won’t do enough to limit Denver’s offense. 

Denver ranks 13th in effective field goal percentage, while the Kings are 28th in the corresponding defensive category, per dunksandthrees.com. 

Given the Sacramento offense is evenly matched with Denver’s defense – the Kings are seventh in effective field goal percentage, Denver is sixth defensively – I’ll lay the points.

NBA ATS Records for 2023-24

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.
Magic35-19-0.648
Thunder33-20-1.623
76ers31-22-0.585
Pelicans30-23-1.566
Jazz30-23-1.566
Cavaliers28-22-2.560
Knicks29-23-2.558
Pacers29-24-3.547
Warriors27-23-1.540
Clippers28-24-0.539
Timberwolves28-24-2.539
Rockets27-24-2.529
Bulls28-25-1.528
Mavericks28-26-0.519
Kings27-25-1.519
Pistons26-26-1.500
Wizards25-27-1.481
Nets24-26-3.480
Heat25-28-1.472
Trail Blazers25-28-0.472
Celtics24-27-3.471
Lakers26-30-0.464
Grizzlies25-29-0.463
Spurs25-29-0.463
Raptors24-29-1.453
Nuggets22-30-2.423
Suns22-30-2.423
Bucks21-33-1.389
Hornets20-33-0.377
Hawks17-37-0.315

NBA Over/Under Records for 2023-24

TeamOver RecordOver Pct.Under Pct.
76ers32-21-0.604.396
Thunder31-22-1.585.415
Pistons30-22-1.577.423
Hawks31-23-0.574.426
Bulls30-23-1.566.434
Jazz30-23-1.566.434
Pacers30-24-2.556.444
Warriors28-23-0.549.451
Kings27-23-3.540.460
Lakers30-26-0.536.464
Hornets28-25-0.528.472
Bucks29-26-0.527.473
Raptors28-26-0.519.482
Mavericks27-26-1.509.491
Suns27-26-1.509.491
Spurs27-26-1.509.491
Celtics27-27-0.500.500
Timberwolves26-27-1.491.509
Magic26-27-1.491.509
Nets25-27-1.481.519
Pelicans25-28-1.472.528
Rockets24-28-1.462.539
Wizards24-28-1.462.539
Trail Blazers24-29-0.453.547
Cavaliers23-28-1.451.549
Grizzlies23-31-0.426.574
Clippers21-30-1.412.588
Knicks22-32-0.407.593
Heat21-33-0.389.611
Nuggets20-34-0.370.630

How Often Do Favorites Cover in NBA Betting?

Favorites covered the spread in 49.9% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons (2013-22).

The New York Knicks were the best team as a favorite over that time, covering in 53.9% of opportunities.

The Washington Wizards were the worst favorite, covering in 45% of opportunities.

How Often Do Underdogs Cover in NBA Betting?

Underdogs covered the spread in 50.1% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.

The Boston Celtics were the best team as an underdog over that time, covering in 58.1% of opportunities.

The Houston Rockets were the worst underdog, covering in 45.1% of opportunities.

How Often Do Home Teams Cover in NBA Betting?

Home teams covered the spread in 49.4% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.

The Memphis Grizzlies were the best home team over that time, covering in 53.7% of games.

The Minnesota Timberwolves were the worst home team, covering in 45.1% of games.

How Often Do Road Teams Cover in NBA Betting?

Road teams covered the spread in 50.6% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.

The Celtics were the best road team over that time, covering in 56.1% of games.

The Cleveland Cavaliers were the worst road team, covering in 44.3% of games.

How Often Do Favorites Win in NBA Betting?

Favorites won 67.9% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.

The Golden State Warriors had the best record as a moneyline favorite over that time, winning 76.2% of games.

The Sacramento Kings had the worst record as a moneyline favorite, winning 58.7% of games.

How Often Do Underdogs Win in NBA Betting?

Underdogs won 32.1% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.

The Toronto Raptors had the best record as moneyline underdog over that time, winning 41.4% of games.

The Philadelphia 76ers had the worst record as a moneyline underdog, winning 26.5% of games.

How Often Do Home Teams Win in NBA Betting?

Home teams won 57.3% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.

The Warriors had the best moneyline home record over that time, winning 74.6% of games.

The Knicks had the worst moneyline home record, winning 42.8% of games.

How Often Do Road Teams Win in NBA Betting?

Road teams won 42.7% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.

The Warriors had the best moneyline road record over that time, winning 57.5% of games.

The Orlando Magic had the moneyline worst road record, winning 28.6% of games.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.