- Take this player prop angle for Friday's Pacers vs. Bucks Game 3.
- Why bettors should fade James Harden in the assists department.
- Can the Timberwolves keep it close early against the Suns?
Here are NBA betting picks and predictions based on NBA odds for Friday‘s schedule.
The slate features three Game 3’s with two all square and one team with a 2-0 series lead: Pacers vs. Bucks, Mavericks vs. Clippers and Suns vs. Timberwolves.Â
NBA Picks Today: Friday, April 26
Pacers vs. Bucks – 5:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Damian Lillard Over 4.5 3PM’s (+120)
Nick Hennion: Truthfully, the attraction to this market is largely because of the price. That said, the Bucks appear to be willing to live and die by the three in this series.
Milwaukee attempted 34.5 shot attempts from deep in the first two games. Of all field goal attempts, Milwaukee has seen 41.2% come from beyond the arc.
Lillard has excelled, knocking down six 3-pointers in both contests.
Without Giannis in the lineup, the Bucks attempt loads of threes. Sample 11 games this season without the two-time MVP, and bettors will find the Bucks attempt 36.6 threes per game.
NBA Picks Today: Friday, April 26
Mavericks vs. Clippers – 8:10 p.m. ET
Pick:Â James Harden Under 8.5 Assists (-125)
Shane Jackson: An underrated adjustment from the basketball betting lines is how the total is now 211.5 after being five points higher in Game 2. That’s likely due to neither team cracking triple digits.
But that also adjusts prop markets, except for James Harden’s assists prop, which has remained at 8.5.
Harden finished with eight dimes in each of the first two games. He hasn’t cleared this mark in four straight contests or seven of his previous 10 outings.
NBA Picks Today: Friday, April 26
Suns vs. Timberwolves – 10:40 p.m. ET
Pick:Â Timberwolves 1H Spread (+3.5, -115)
Shane Jackson: For a brief moment of glory, bettors got rich by betting on the home team in the first half of Game 3 while facing a 2-0 deficit.
That trend went 28-3 against the spread between 2015-17.
Since then, home teams have been 18-18-2 ATS (not counting 2020) in the first half in those same situations.
NBA Regular Season ATS Records – Playoff Teams
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. |
| Magic | 51-31-0 | .622 |
| Mavericks | 48-34-0 | .585 |
| 76ers | 48-34-0 | .585 |
| Thunder | 46-35-1 | .568 |
| Pacers | 44-36-3 | .550 |
| Knicks | 43-36-3 | .544 |
| Pelicans | 44-37-1 | .543 |
| Celtics | 41-36-5 | .533 |
| Heat | 40-40-2 | .500 |
| Timberwolves | 40-40-2 | .500 |
| Cavaliers | 38-42-2 | .475 |
| Nuggets | 38-42-2 | .475 |
| Lakers | 39-44-0 | .470 |
| Clippers | 38-44-0 | .463 |
| Suns | 35-45-2 | .438 |
| Bucks | 35-46-1 | .432 |
NBA Regular Season Over/Under Records – Playoff Teams
| Team | Over Record | Over Pct. | Under Pct. |
| Lakers | 47-35-1 | .573 | .427 |
| Thunder | 44-35-3 | .557 | .443 |
| Celtics | 43-39-0 | .524 | .476 |
| 76ers | 43-39-0 | .524 | .476 |
| Pacers | 42-39-2 | .519 | .482 |
| Timberwolves | 41-40-1 | .506 | .494 |
| Cavaliers | 40-41-1 | .494 | .506 |
| Bucks | 40-41-1 | .494 | .506 |
| Magic | 37-44-1 | .457 | .543 |
| Knicks | 37-45-0 | .451 | .549 |
| Clippers | 36-44-2 | .450 | .550 |
| Mavericks | 36-45-1 | .444 | .556 |
| Pelicans | 36-45-1 | .444 | .556 |
| Suns | 36-45-1 | .444 | .556 |
| Nuggets | 35-47-0 | .427 | .573 |
| Heat | 35-47-0 | .427 | .573 |
How Often Do Favorites Cover in NBA Betting?
Favorites covered the spread in 49.9% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons (2013-22).
The New York Knicks were the best team as a favorite over that time, covering in 53.9% of opportunities.
The Washington Wizards were the worst favorite, covering in 45% of opportunities.
How Often Do Underdogs Cover in NBA Betting?
Underdogs covered the spread in 50.1% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Boston Celtics were the best team as an underdog over that time, covering in 58.1% of opportunities.
The Houston Rockets were the worst underdog, covering in 45.1% of opportunities.
How Often Do Home Teams Cover in NBA Betting?
Home teams covered the spread in 49.4% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Memphis Grizzlies were the best home team over that time, covering in 53.7% of games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves were the worst home team, covering in 45.1% of games.
How Often Do Road Teams Cover in NBA Betting?
Road teams covered the spread in 50.6% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Celtics were the best road team over that time, covering in 56.1% of games.
The Cleveland Cavaliers were the worst road team, covering in 44.3% of games.
How Often Do Favorites Win in NBA Betting?
Favorites won 67.9% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Golden State Warriors had the best record as a moneyline favorite over that time, winning 76.2% of games.
The Sacramento Kings had the worst record as a moneyline favorite, winning 58.7% of games.
How Often Do Underdogs Win in NBA Betting?
Underdogs won 32.1% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Toronto Raptors had the best record as moneyline underdog over that time, winning 41.4% of games.
The Philadelphia 76ers had the worst record as a moneyline underdog, winning 26.5% of games.
How Often Do Home Teams Win in NBA Betting?
Home teams won 57.3% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Warriors had the best moneyline home record over that time, winning 74.6% of games.
The Knicks had the worst moneyline home record, winning 42.8% of games.
How Often Do Road Teams Win in NBA Betting?
Road teams won 42.7% of regular-season games over the last 10 seasons.
The Warriors had the best moneyline road record over that time, winning 57.5% of games.
The Orlando Magic had the moneyline worst road record, winning 28.6% of games.
NBA Finals Betting Odds
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