Spurs vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 19

  • The are favorites vs. the
  • Total (Over/Under): Total points
  • Watch the game on SUN | FDSW

The San Antonio Spurs visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Miami, FL, USA.

The are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Spurs vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Spurs are 20-20 against the spread, while the Heat are 17-23 against the spread.


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Spurs vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
San Antonio Spurs O
Miami Heat U

Heat vs Spurs Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Spurs and Heat.

Heat vs Spurs Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 52.0% confidence.


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  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 63 games (+22.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 78 games (+21.42 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have covered the 3Q Spread in 49 of their last 78 games (+16.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games (+11.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 41 of their last 67 games (+14.47 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+13.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.61 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 40 of their last 69 games (+9.30 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 82 games (+8.80 Units / 5% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Spurs have gone 20-20 (-2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • 19-21 against the Moneyline (+2.15 Units / 3.97% ROI)
  • 20-19 against the Over for game total points (-0.9 Units / -2.05% ROI)
  • 19-20 against the Under for game total points (-3 Units / -6.82% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 17-23 (-8.3 Units / -18.86% ROI).

  • 20-20 against the Moneyline (-0.4 Units / -0.56% ROI)
  • 22-18 against the Over for game total points (+2.2 Units / 5% ROI)
  • 18-22 against the Under for game total points (-6.2 Units / -14.09% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 88 games (-25.13 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 37 of their last 88 games (-20.60 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 38 of their last 88 games (-18.45 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 61 games (-14.95 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 61 games (-14.60 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 31 of their last 79 games (-23.12 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 76 games (-22.63 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 80 games (-20.27 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 67 games (-14.68 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The San Antonio Spurs have only hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 78 games (-14.30 Units / -17% ROI)

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San Antonio Spurs: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Spurs were 2-24 (.077) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .353

The Spurs are 4-68 (.056) when allowing their opponent to shoot 40% or better from three since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .303

The Spurs are 30-54 (.357) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Spurs are 7-18 (.280) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the San Antonio Spurs

The Heat are 27-17 (.614) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .445

The Heat are 5-12 (.294) when forcing fewer than 5 steals since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .388

The Heat are 2-11 (.154) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .353

The Heat are 4-8 (.333) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

San Antonio Spurs Offensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs have averaged 1.20 points per shot (10,012 points/8,332 shots) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The Spurs have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.0 (1,141 assists/ 577 TOs) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Spurs averaged 51.4 points in the paint per game (4,214 points/82 games) last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.3

The Spurs had an eFG% of 53% last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 55%

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 5.1 second chance points per game (204 points/40 games) in the first half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

The Heat shot 43% (413/964) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat averaged 53.3 points per game (4,368 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

San Antonio Spurs Defensive Stats & Trends

The Spurs have averaged 7.0 blocks per game (278 blocks/40 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Spurs have averaged 6.5 blocks per game (798 blocks/122 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Spurs have averaged 6.4 blocks per game (375 blocks/59 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Spurs have averaged 37.1 defensive rebounds per game (1,483 rebounds/40 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (301 blocks/93 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (430 blocks/122 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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