- The Thunder are -1.5 favorites vs. the Heat
- Total (Over/Under): 216.5 points
- Watch the game on FDOK | SUN
The Oklahoma City Thunder visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Miami, FL.
The – are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().
The Thunder vs Heat Over/Under is total points for the game.
So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 16-10 against the spread, while the Heat are 11-13 against the spread.
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Thunder vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | O | ||
| Miami Heat | U |
Heat vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:
The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Heat.
Heat vs Thunder Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.
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Thunder Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 72 games (+12.70 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 46 of their last 79 games (+10.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 away games (+10.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 1H Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 away games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI)
Heat Best Bets for Tonight:
- The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 83 games (+16.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 33 of their last 51 games (+14.62 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have covered the 4Q Spread in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.71 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 66 games (+9.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Oklahoma City Thunder Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 16-10 (+5 Units / 16.84% ROI).
- 21-6 against the Moneyline (+4.75 Units / 4.46% ROI)
- 11-16 against the Over for game total points (-6.6 Units / -22.22% ROI)
- 16-11 against the Under for game total points (+3.9 Units / 13.13% ROI)
Miami Heat Against the Spread (ATS) Record This Season:
Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 11-13 (-3.3 Units / -12.5% ROI).
- 13-11 against the Moneyline (+0.5 Units / 1.12% ROI)
- 14-10 against the Over for game total points (+3 Units / 11.36% ROI)
- 10-14 against the Under for game total points (-5.4 Units / -20.45% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Heat:
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 83 games (-28.13 Units / -30% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only covered the 1Q Spread in 28 of their last 74 games (-23.75 Units / -28% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 34 of their last 84 games (-21.25 Units / -22% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 28 of their last 74 games (-19.60 Units / -18% ROI)
- The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 82 games (-19.60 Units / -21% ROI)
Negative Value Bets Against the Spread for the Thunder:
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 79 games (-21.58 Units / -24% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 94 games (-19.35 Units / -18% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 94 games (-17.80 Units / -16% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 93 games (-16.90 Units / -16% ROI)
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 37 of their last 83 games (-16.10 Units / -17% ROI)
Jump to:
- Keys to Winning for the Oklahoma City Thunder
- Keys to Winning for the Miami Heat
- Player Injuries for Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive stats
- Miami Heat Offensive stats
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive stats
- Miami Heat Defensive stats
Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat
The Thunder are 24-8 (.750) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .463
The Thunder are 12-3 (.800) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .585
The Thunder are 58-20 (.744) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554
The Thunder are 30-4 (.882) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2023-24 season — best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 50.3 rebounds/game since the start of the 2023-24 season — 6th-lowest in the NBA.
Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder
The Heat are 9-2 (.818) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 6th-best in the NBA. The Thunder have averaged 51.0 rebounds/game this season — 9th-lowest in the NBA.
The Heat were 17-2 (.895) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .789
The Heat were 33-8 (.805) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .659
The Heat were 19-10 (.655) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .448
Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends
The Thunder shot 41% from three (558/1,378) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%
The Thunder have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.6 (54 assists/ 21 TOs) in close and late situations this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7
The Thunder have a 21% free throw rate (490 free throw attempts/2,310 field goal attempts) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%
The Thunder had an eFG% of 58% in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%
Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 11.6 second chance points per game (1,232 points/106 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.8
The Heat had an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%
The Heat averaged 11.1 second chance points per game (454 points/41 games) on the road last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6
The Heat have averaged 53.7 points per game (5,695 points/106 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.4
Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends
The Thunder have averaged 12.2 steals per game (304 steals/25 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.4
The Thunder have averaged 9.7 steals per game (512 steals/53 games) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.7
The Thunder have 304 steals this season — most among NBA teams
The Thunder have averaged 7.0 blocks per game (379 blocks/54 games) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.3
Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (603 blocks/186 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (302 blocks/93 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9
The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (365 blocks/106 games) since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2
The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (301 blocks/93 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0
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