Thunder vs Rockets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 25, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Thunder are -6.5 favorites vs. the Rockets
  • Total (Over/Under): 234.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSOK | SCHN

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Houston, TX.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).

The Thunder vs Rockets Over/Under is 234.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 35-20 against the spread, while the Rockets are 28-26 against the spread.


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Thunder vs. Rockets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder-6.5 -105O 234.5 -115-250
Houston Rockets +6.5 -115U 234.5 -105+200

Rockets vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Sunday‘s game with 76.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Thunder and Rockets.

Rockets vs Thunder Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Rockets will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 60 games (+16.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 38 of their last 60 games (+14.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 44 of their last 73 games (+14.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 40 of their last 64 games (+13.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 1Q Spread in 39 of their last 62 games (+13.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+21.15 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+12.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+12.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+11.10 Units / 27% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 35-20 (+12.95 Units / 21.02% ROI).

  • 39-17 against the Moneyline (+13.75 Units / 9.02% ROI)
  • 31-22 against the Over for game total points (+6.8 Units / 11.02% ROI)
  • 22-31 against the Under for game total points (-12 Units / -19.51% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 28-26 (-0.55 Units / -0.89% ROI).

  • 25-31 against the Moneyline (-4.15 Units / -5.16% ROI)
  • 26-29 against the Over for game total points (-5.9 Units / -9.58% ROI)
  • 29-26 against the Under for game total points (+0.4 Units / 0.65% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 29 of their last 74 games (-19.00 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 79 games (-15.75 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 79 games (-13.95 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 64 games (-13.60 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the 1Q Spread in 30 of their last 68 games (-10.85 Units / -14% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 53 games (-20.30 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 78 games (-19.60 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 33 of their last 80 games (-17.25 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 80 games (-15.30 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 81 games (-13.80 Units / -15% ROI)

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Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets

The Thunder were undefeated (9-0) when their eFG is 60% or better last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .808

The Thunder are undefeated (12-0) when winning the rebounding margin this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .647

The Thunder are 23-2 (.920) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .560

The Thunder are 1-3 (.250) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Rockets were 15-49 (.234) when they lose the turnover margin last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Rockets were winless (0-5) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Rockets are winless (0-13) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .369

The Rockets were 2-19 (.095) when losing the rebounding margin last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .366

Injury Report: Rockets vs. ThunderSunday‘s Game, Feb. 25

  • Steven Adams (Houston Rockets): Knee, Out For Season
  • Tari Eason (Houston Rockets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Oklahoma City Thunder – No Injuries Reported

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 41% from three (369/893) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Thunder have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have averaged 13.5 offensive rebounds per game (718 rebounds/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.5

The Thunder have averaged 10.9 second chance points per game (580 points/53 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.9

Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (887 assists/ 665 TOs) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (1,835 assists/ 1,332 TOs) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (943 assists/ 666 TOs) on the road last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets shot 33% from three (856/2,619) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have allowed 19.0 offensive rebounds per game (1,276 rebounds/67 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.4

The Thunder have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (352 blocks/53 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Thunder have allowed 9.3 offensive rebounds per game (1,253 rebounds/135 games) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder averaged 4.2 blocks per game (341 blocks/82 games) last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets allowed a TS% of 55% on the road last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%

The Rockets allowed 17.5 fast break points per game (1,432 points/82 games) last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.0

The Rockets allowed an eFG% of 59% on the road last season — 2nd highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

The Rockets have averaged 36.7 defensive rebounds per game (1,943 rebounds/53 games) this season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.