Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 06, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -5.5 favorites vs. the Timberwolves
  • Total (Over/Under): 206.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Timberwolves vs Nuggets Over/Under is 207.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Timberwolves are 45-41 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 40-46 against the spread.


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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Minnesota Timberwolves+6.5 -110O 207.5 -110+225
Denver Nuggets -6.5 -110U 207.5 -110-275

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Monday‘s game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Timberwolves and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Timberwolves will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 58.7% confidence.


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  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 3Q Spread in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+14.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 away games (+14.75 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 81 games (+12.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 99 games (+20.45 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 99 games (+17.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 57 of their last 96 games (+15.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 1Q Spread in 53 of their last 88 games (+12.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games at home (+11.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 45-41 (-0.2 Units / -0.21% ROI).

  • 61-26 against the Moneyline (+12.9 Units / 4.35% ROI)
  • 45-42 against the Over for game total points (-1.2 Units / -1.25% ROI)
  • 42-45 against the Under for game total points (-7.5 Units / -7.84% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 40-46 (-10.6 Units / -10.94% ROI).

  • 61-27 against the Moneyline (+12.6 Units / 3.85% ROI)
  • 35-51 against the Over for game total points (-21.1 Units / -21.79% ROI)
  • 51-35 against the Under for game total points (+12.55 Units / 12.97% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 96 games (-29.25 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 99 games (-26.90 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 94 games (-23.60 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games (-18.15 Units / -11% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 93 games (-17.65 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 40 of their last 78 games (-28.65 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only covered the 1Q Spread in 31 of their last 80 games (-24.50 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 31 of their last 81 games (-24.40 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 61 games (-23.55 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 80 games (-19.80 Units / -14% ROI)

Jump to:

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Timberwolves are 24-2 (.923) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Timberwolves were 14-6 (.700) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Timberwolves were 5-8 (.385) when scoring fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Timberwolves are 25-7 (.781) when shooting 40% or better from three this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .683

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets were 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Nuggets are 27-6 (.818) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .579

The Nuggets are 42-12 (.778) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Nuggets are 47-22 (.681) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .487

Injury Report: Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesMonday‘s Game, May 6

  • Collin Gillespie (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out
  • Vlatko Cancar (Denver Nuggets): Knee, Out For Season
  • Jaylen Clark (Minnesota Timberwolves): Achilles, Out For Season

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 1.33 points per shot (9,264 points/6,973 shots) this season — tied for 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The Timberwolves shot 49% (3,515/7,167) last season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Timberwolves have averaged 14.2 turnovers per game (1,163 turnovers/82 games) this season — 9th highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 13.6

The Timberwolves averaged 14.9 offensive rebounds per game (1,222 rebounds/82 games) last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.3

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets shot 52% (1,889/3,652) in the first half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 50% (3,574/7,088) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets shot 51% (1,831/3,563) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets averaged 13.6 assists per game (1,114 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 36.2 defensive rebounds per game (2,971 rebounds/82 games) this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Timberwolves have allowed a TS% of 48% at home this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%

The Timberwolves have blocked 496 shots this season — 5th most among NBA teams

The Timberwolves averaged 5.4 blocks per game (444 blocks/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 35.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,946 rebounds/82 games) this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Nuggets have blocked 457 shots this season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets have averaged 35.5 defensive rebounds per game (5,822 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Nuggets have allowed 11.3 made three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.4


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