Warriors vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Dec. 3

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Golden State Warriors logo on the left and Denver Nuggets logo on the right
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 04, 2024, 12:00 AM
  • The Nuggets are -4.5 favorites vs. the Warriors
  • Total (Over/Under): 239.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT | NSBA

The Golden State Warriors visit Ball Arena to take on the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Denver, CO.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Warriors vs Nuggets Over/Under is 237.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 11-8 against the spread, while the Nuggets are 7-10 against the spread.


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Warriors vs. Nuggets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Golden State Warriors+5.5 -110O 237.5 -115+165
Denver Nuggets -5.5 -110U 237.5 -105-200

Nuggets vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Tuesday‘s game with 78.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Warriors and Nuggets.

Nuggets vs Warriors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 68.4% confidence.


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  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 33 away games (+17.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 3Q Spread in 42 of their last 70 games (+14.18 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 away games (+11.99 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 25 of their last 39 away games (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the 3Q Spread in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+10.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 89 games (+9.50 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+9.27 Units / 28% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 11-8 (+2.2 Units / 10.53% ROI).

  • 12-7 against the Moneyline (-3.95 Units / -8.28% ROI)
  • 10-9 against the Over for game total points (+0.1 Units / 0.48% ROI)
  • 9-10 against the Under for game total points (-2 Units / -9.57% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 7-10 (-4 Units / -20.2% ROI).

  • 10-8 against the Moneyline (+0.25 Units / 0.63% ROI)
  • 12-6 against the Over for game total points (+5.4 Units / 27.27% ROI)
  • 6-12 against the Under for game total points (-7.2 Units / -36.36% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 40 of their last 83 games (-33.90 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 33 games (-20.95 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 29 games at home (-17.60 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 1H Spread in 36 of their last 83 games (-17.15 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 20 of their last 52 games (-16.72 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 2Q Spread in 29 of their last 72 games (-17.15 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 35 of their last 80 games (-16.70 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 59 games (-14.50 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 68 games (-13.40 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 50 games (-13.20 Units / -23% ROI)

Jump to:

Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Warriors are 11-2 (.846) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 3rd-best in the NBA. The Nuggets have allowed 116.4 points per game this season — 7th-worst in the NBA.

The Warriors are 11-1 (.917) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .652

The Warriors are 35-4 (.897) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2023-24 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .685

The Warriors are 12-3 (.800) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .505

Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Nuggets were 13-1 (.929) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .572

The Nuggets were 47-22 (.681) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .487

The Nuggets were 16-6 (.727) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Nuggets are 28-7 (.800) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .581

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors are shooting 70% from the free throw line (251/360) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Warriors have made 15.5 three-pointers per game on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5

The Warriors have made 15.7 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.7

The Warriors have a 22% free throw rate (1,769 free throw attempts/8,062 field goal attempts) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 26%

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 15.0 assists per game (225 assists/15 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.4

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.4 (225 assists/ 92 TOs) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Nuggets have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.3 (2,747 assists/ 1,216 TOs) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.9

The Nuggets have averaged 11.1 fast break points per game (166 points/15 games) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.9

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have allowed opponents to shoot 31% from three (193/624) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 36%

The Warriors averaged 36.8 defensive rebounds per game (3,018 rebounds/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Warriors averaged 7.0 steals per game (572 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Warriors have averaged 38.8 defensive rebounds per game (620 rebounds/16 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 36.8 defensive rebounds per game (552 rebounds/15 games) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.4

The Nuggets averaged 7.1 steals per game (585 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Nuggets averaged 5.6 blocks per game (457 blocks/82 games) last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Nuggets have allowed a TS% of 48% in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 51%


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