Warriors vs Rockets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 04, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Warriors are -3.5 favorites vs. the Rockets
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5 points
  • Watch the game on SCHN | NSBA

The Golden State Warriors visit Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Houston, TX.

The Warriors are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Warriors vs Rockets Over/Under is 228.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Warriors are 40-33 against the spread, while the Rockets are 41-31 against the spread.


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Warriors vs. Rockets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Golden State Warriors-3.5 -115O 228.5 -110-165
Houston Rockets +3.5 -105U 228.5 -110+140

Rockets vs Warriors Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Warriors will win Thursday‘s game with 63.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Warriors and Rockets.

Rockets vs Warriors Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Warriors will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.3% confidence.


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  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the 1H Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 away games (+13.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 away games (+12.30 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the Spread in 25 of their last 37 away games (+11.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 away games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+17.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have covered the Spread in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+15.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+13.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+9.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have covered the 2Q Spread in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+9.20 Units / 23% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Warriors have gone 40-33 (+3.7 Units / 4.55% ROI).

  • 40-34 against the Moneyline (-10.2 Units / -6.35% ROI)
  • 37-37 against the Over for game total points (-3.7 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 37-37 against the Under for game total points (-3.7 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 41-31 (+6.9 Units / 8.48% ROI).

  • 38-36 against the Moneyline (+8.55 Units / 6.85% ROI)
  • 35-38 against the Over for game total points (-6.8 Units / -8.35% ROI)
  • 38-35 against the Under for game total points (-0.45 Units / -0.55% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 26 games at home (-14.70 Units / -49% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 39 games at home (-10.65 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 15 of their last 37 games at home (-10.30 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 39 games at home (-9.90 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 27 games at home (-9.45 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only covered the 4Q Spread in 17 of their last 44 away games (-14.30 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 35 away games (-12.25 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 24 away games (-11.70 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 31 away games (-9.95 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Golden State Warriors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 21 away games (-9.90 Units / -41% ROI)

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Golden State Warriors: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets

The Warriors were 2-21 (.087) when allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .263

The Warriors were 13-12 (.520) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Warriors are 7-3 (.700) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .535

The Warriors were 7-11 (.389) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the Golden State Warriors

The Rockets were winless (0-5) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .444

The Rockets were 15-49 (.234) when they lose the turnover margin last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Rockets were 6-22 (.214) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .456

The Rockets were 14-28 (.333) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Injury Report: Rockets vs. WarriorsThursday‘s Game, Apr. 4

  • Steven Adams (Houston Rockets): Knee, Out For Season
  • Tari Eason (Houston Rockets): Lower Leg, Out
  • Chris Paul (Golden State Warriors): Hand, Out

Golden State Warriors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors made 16.6 three-pointers per game last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Warriors averaged 14.4 assists per game (1,181 assists/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.0

The Warriors had 20.2 free throw attempts per game last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

The Warriors averaged 8.2 turnovers per game (673 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (943 assists/ 666 TOs) on the road last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (887 assists/ 665 TOs) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (1,835 assists/ 1,332 TOs) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (892 assists/ 666 TOs) at home last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

Golden State Warriors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Warriors have averaged 36.7 defensive rebounds per game (2,756 rebounds/75 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Warriors averaged 36.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,999 rebounds/82 games) last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Warriors have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (649 blocks/157 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Warriors have averaged 4.3 blocks per game (326 blocks/75 games) this season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets allowed 19.0 fast break points per game (780 points/41 games) on the road last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.3

The Rockets allowed 14.5 made three-pointers per game last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 12.3

The Rockets allowed a TS% of 55% on the road last season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%

The Rockets allowed an eFG% of 59% on the road last season — 2nd highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.