Arkansas vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Jan. 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 28, 2023, 12:04 PM
  • Baylor (15-5) are -6.5 point favorites vs Arkansas (14-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 141.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Arkansas Razorbacks (14-6) visit Ferrell Center to take on the Baylor Bears (15-5) on Jan. 28. Tip off is scheduled for 4:00pm EST in Waco.

Baylor is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Arkansas vs. Baylor Over/Under is 141.5 total points.

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Arkansas vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Arkansas+6.5 -110141.5 -105+220
Baylor -6.5 -110141.5 -115-275

Arkansas vs Baylor Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 65.0% confidence.

Arkansas vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Arkansas will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas and Baylor, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Arkansas has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 34 of their last 47 games (+19.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 37 games (+18.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Arkansas have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 42 games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Arkansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games (+5.85 Units / 6% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+7.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.15 Units / 10% ROI)

Arkansas Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Arkansas has gone 9-10 against the spread this college basketball season (-1.95 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 9-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 1.99% ROI
  • 6-13 when betting the Over for -8.3 Units / -37.73% ROI
  • 13-6 when betting the Under for +6.4 Units / 29.09% ROI

Baylor Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Baylor has gone 10-9 against the spread this college basketball season (+0.1 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 9-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.05 Units / -4.49% ROI
  • 11-9 when betting the Over for +1.1 Units / 4.99% ROI
  • 9-11 when betting the Under for -3.05 Units / -13.9% ROI

Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends:

Arkansas has made 5.0 three-pointers per game this season — tied for lowest among Power 5 Conference teams; League Avg: 7.2

Arkansas is shooting 24% from three (39/159) in the first half this season — lowest among SEC Teams; League Avg: 32%

Arkansas has 22.4 free throw attempts per game since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among Power 5 Conference teams; League Avg: 18.1

Arkansas has averaged 1.42 points per shot (820 points/579 shots) in the second half this season — 2nd best among SEC Teams; League Avg: 1.34

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends:

Baylor has made 9.4 three-pointers per game this season — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 7.2

Baylor has made 8.6 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 7.1

Baylor has attempted 525 threes this season — most among Big 12 Teams

Baylor has attempted 248 threes in the second half this season — most among Big 12 Teams

Arkansas Defensive Stats & Trends:

Arkansas has averaged 26.9 defensive rebounds per game (1,536 rebounds/57 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 27th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.4

Arkansas has 181 steals this season — 8th most among Power 5 Conference teams

Arkansas has 462 steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th most among Power 5 Conference teams

Arkansas has averaged 8.1 steals per game (462 steals/57 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 27th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 6.7

Baylor Defensive Stats & Trends:

Baylor allowed opponents to shoot 54% off the dribble (19/35) on mid-range shots last season in conference play — highest among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 38%

Baylor allowed opponents to shoot 19% on catch and shoot opportunities (11/58) on left wing attempts last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 32%

Baylor allowed opponents to shoot 23% from three in catch and shoot opportunities (16/69) on possessions with a ball reversal last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 35%

Baylor allowed an average of 0.79 points per shot (27 points/34 shots) on left corner attempts last season in conference play — best among Big 12 Teams; League Avg: 1.05


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.