Sweet 16 Predictions: March Madness Odds, Best Bets

Over the last week, the field of 68 has been whittled to just 16 remaining teams. Those 16 teams are still alive and competing for the Division I men’s college basketball national championship.

Pretty sweet.

Though the ultimate prize in the March Madness odds market is the national championship, most teams are just focusing on going 1-0 at the end of this week.

That means handicappers are preparing for a second week of college basketball odds by examining the Sweet 16 betting matchups. 

Sweet 16 Odds

Sweet 16 Best Bets

Typical straight bet rules are in effect for this week’s Sweet 16. Consider placing your bets early in the week, especially if you’re concerned about losing line value as the week goes on.

Conversely, there can be value in attacking the market changes if a line overdevelops throughout the week.

Finally, remember: Just like the NFL season, there is no need to bet every single game. Pick the spots you like and limit your exposure to the games and numbers you feel best about. 

Here are a couple of the games I feel strongly about right out of the gate.

Sweet 16 Predictions: Purdue (-5.5) vs. Gonzaga

This will sound like a sexy March matchup where the favorite is on upset alert, but I’m not ready to buy Gonzaga just yet. 

The Bulldogs ran through a top-heavy WCC, lost to Saint Mary’s in the conference championship game, then advanced to the Sweet 16 by playing overmatched McNeese and injury-weakened Kansas. In the case of the latter, Gonzaga was even favored to win, at least according to BetMGM’s odds. 

Purdue will be a real step up for the Zags, which head coach Mark Few surely knows. After all, these two teams played back on Nov. 20 on a neutral court in Hawai’i. The Boilermakers won by 10. And as anyone who watched Sunday’s Purdue game can attest, the arrival of the NCAA Tournament has only sharpened the Boilermaker’s anger and focus after last season’s early ouster. 

Overall, Gonzaga is 1-5 outright this year against top 20 KenPom opponents. 

Sweet 16 Predictions: Clemson (+7.5) vs. Arizona

Clemson has been one of the most Jekyll-and-Hyde teams of the season, roasting eventual tournament teams by the bucketload in November and December before struggling through most of the ACC season. 

We know what Clemson is capable of when they’re playing well. The problem is that the Tigers haven’t played well in months. At least, not until the NCAA Tournament started, when they apparently found the switch and turned it all back on. 

I remain a bit skeptical that Clemson will win this game. I’m high on Arizona to win this region and make the Final Four, in part because BetMGM’s Final Four odds actually price the Wildcats as the regional favorite in spite of their No. 2 seed status. 

That said, a 7.5-point spread seems like a lot for a strong ACC team that has found its mojo and ripped off plenty of convincing wins earlier this season. I’ll take Clemson plus the points and hedge against my more long-term Arizona positioning. 

Sweet 16 Predictions: North Carolina vs. Alabama: Over 173.5

I’ve covered Alabama’s three-point variance a few times, including in my updated college basketball national championship odds market analysis. Because of Nate Oats’ focus on the longball, Alabama can beat almost anyone, lose to almost anyone, and play any kind of game between the poles.

We saw a little bit of that in the first week of the NCAA Tournament, at least as far as that dynamic relates to the totals market. In its first-round game against the College of Charleston, Alabama hit 13 three-pointers and scored nearly 110 points by itself. 

In a second game against Grand Canyon, though, both teams combined for 10 three-pointers in the game, resulting in a score that barely cracked 130 combined points. The total result was an under that cleared by 40 points.

When you bet an Alabama total, you’re betting on three-point variance and the opposition’s offensive success. Sometimes, that can feel random. In this case, I think Alabama will use its preparation time this week to scheme up open three-point shots against North Carolina’s defense, just as it did against Charleston. 

On the UNC side, the Tar Heels scored 80 points in both of its first two tournament games and should manage enough offense to hold up their end up over on a high total like this.