Final Four Betting Odds: UConn Evolves Into Huge Favorite

College basketball fans are inching closer to Saturday’s Final Four, which will serve as the national semifinals for March Madness. 

Naturally, BetMGM has all the college basketball odds you need to get involved in the final three games of the season. 

Today, I wanted to walk through where I’m at with the remaining championship market, as well as the individual semifinal games and their corresponding point spreads. 

Final Four Betting Odds

Let’s start with the basics. UConn is, unsurprisingly, a pretty healthy favorite to win the national championship now that the field has been whittled down to four teams. The Huskies are -125 to win the championship.

San Diego State (+400), Miami (+475), and Florida Atlantic (+625) are all still considered relative longshots, despite being just two games away from the title. 

The college basketball national championship odds — which I write about and analyze throughout the year at that link, by the way — have been a little funky for these teams all year.

FAU was spotlighted as a real contender by RPI metrics even before Jan. 1. Classically, though, its mid-major status suppressed its appeal to bettors in the NCAAB odds market.

Miami, too, has been viewed as underwhelming throughout the season. Maybe that’s a function of how weak the ACC was this year, compared to the conference’s own historical standards, but Miami has nevertheless been bet with kid gloves throughout the year. 

The Hurricanes opened the year with 50-to-1 championship odds; last week, when they had already reached the Sweet 16, they were still 50-to-1. That’s how soft the market was on Miami.

As for San Diego State, few were willing to bet on a deep run from any Mountain West team, even though San Diego State has won more games over the last 15 years than nearly any other Division I college basketball program. It just didn’t seem like a team with this kind of ceiling.

I wrote a bit earlier this week about how this is essentially the Chaos Theory Final Four. With transfers, NIL, and a flatter competitive surface, March Madness could hypothetically reach a new ceiling of … er, madness.

That remains true now. But it’s also true that betting markets viewed most of these Final Four teams throughout the year as defective. These were classic diamonds in the rough, overlooked for a variety of reasons.

That’s a tale as old as sports.

UConn Championship Odds

Given that bettors have been reluctant to buy three of these four teams all season, I’m actually a bit surprised that UConn isn’t an even higher favorite than it is right now.

Look at UConn’s title odds again. At -125, UConn has an implied 55.6% chance to win the national championship. By extension, this bet is essentially asking bettors a classic question: Do you want UConn or the field?

UConn has won four national championships since 1999 — more than any other program in that span — and the other three programs have never made the Final Four. History doesn’t necessarily have any impact on the games that will be played this weekend, but considering the oligarchical nature of college championships … Well, which side would you want?

I’m surprised that UConn isn’t an even bigger favorite — a more dramatic odds-on price like -180, to really make bettors think twice before loading up on the obvious favorite. 

San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic Predictions

San Diego State is a 1.5-point favorite this weekend. At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Aztecs are drawing 62% of the bets and nearly 80% of the market handle. 

There’s also a sizable ticket/handle difference in the moneyline market, where a majority of tickets are on FAU +115, but a majority of the handle is on San Diego State -135.

The key factor that will decide this game is most likely FAU’s outside shooting against San Diego State’s length and defense. 

Alabama and Creighton shot 5 for 44 combined from 3 vs San Diego St this weekend. Just a ridiculous defense.

— Spread Investor (@spreadinvestor) March 27, 2023

No. 1 overall seed Alabama relied on excellent three-point shooting to bury teams. When the threes don’t fall, Alabama becomes very beatable.

Against San Diego State, the threes didn’t fall. If you’re a bettor who’s inclined to credit that to the Aztec defense, then you may want to bet against Florida Atlantic.

Personally, I like Florida Atlantic to win outright, so give me the +115.

UConn vs. Miami Predictions

I’ve bet against Miami throughout the season, and they have burned me again and again. That makes me a little gun shy to fade the Hurricanes again in this spot.

That said, I do think UConn is the better team. Miami has now engineered more than one improbable, late-game comeback to stay alive and advance in this tournament. 

The Hurricanes deserve immense credit for the guts and defense it takes to conjure those results on the court, but I also see it as a bit of a fluky outcome. 

I do think UConn will be Miami’s toughest test of the tournament — yes, tougher than something-is-not-quite-right-here Houston — and I think UConn will prevail.

I’m unwilling to lay the points, though, so I would consider just buying the UConn championship future. That sets up the potential for a middle in the title game after buying the point spread on the other side.