Louisville vs Pittsburgh Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Jan. 11

Pittsburgh head coach Jeff Capel questions a call during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Clemson in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023.
(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
  • Pittsburgh is a -4.5 point favorite vs Louisville
  • Total (Over/Under): 149.5 points
  • Louisville / Pittsburgh TV channel: ESPN2

The Louisville Cardinals visit Petersen Events Center to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers on Jan. 11. Tip off is scheduled for 12:00pm EST in Pittsburgh, PA.

Pittsburgh is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).

The Louisville vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under is 149.5 total points.

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Louisville vs. Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Louisville+4.5 -115O 149.5 -110+145
Pittsburgh -4.5 -105U 149.5 -110-175

Louisville vs Pittsburgh Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this college basketball game with 53.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Louisville vs Pittsburgh Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Pittsburgh will cover the spread with 63.2% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Louisville has hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 away games (+1.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 12 away games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 32 games (+23.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh have covered the Spread in 23 of their last 32 games (+15.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+9.30 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+7.10 Units / 4% ROI)
  • Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 18 games at home (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)

Louisville Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Louisville has a 9-7 record against the spread this college basketball season (+1.3 Units / 7.39% ROI).

  • 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 2.16% ROI
  • 4-12 when betting the Over for -9.3 Units / -52.54% ROI
  • 12-4 when betting the Under for +7.65 Units / 43.59% ROI

Pittsburgh Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Pittsburgh has a 10-5 record against the spread this college basketball season (+4.5 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • 13-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.95 Units / 5.64% ROI
  • 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.43% ROI
  • 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.75 Units / -10.57% ROI

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends:

Louisville averaged 5.0 assists per game (154 assists/31 games) in the first half last season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.8

Louisville is shooting 29% from three (196/683) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 35%

Louisville is shooting 30% from three (147/494) this season — 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 35%

Louisville is shooting 29% from three (156/530) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 34%

Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends:

Pittsburgh averaged 9.0 turnovers per game (287 turnovers/32 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.3

Pittsburgh averaged 9.0 turnovers per game (287 turnovers/32 games) last season — tied for 7th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 11.6

Pittsburgh has averaged 4.0 turnovers per game (190 turnovers/47 games) in the second half since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 5.2

Pittsburgh had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (439 assists/ 287 TOs) last season — tied for 20th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends:

Louisville allowed opponents to shoot 48% (450/927) in the first half last season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 43%

Louisville averaged 5.5 steals per game (169 steals/31 games) last season — tied for 45th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 6.7

Louisville allowed an average of 1.35 points per shot (2,463 points/1,827 shots) last season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.22

Louisville allowed opponents to shoot 37% from three (266/714) last season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 34%

Pittsburgh Defensive Stats & Trends:

Pittsburgh allowed opponents to shoot 31% from three (216/691) last season — tied for 25th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%

Pittsburgh allowed opponents to shoot 32% from three (97/306) in the second half last season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 34%

Pittsburgh allowed opponents to shoot 41% (376/916) in the first half last season — 4th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 43%

Pittsburgh has allowed opponents to shoot 35% from three (134/378) on the road since the start of the 2023-24 season — 5th highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 34%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.