- Louisville is a -5.5 point favorite vs Virginia
- Total (Over/Under): 129.5 points
- Louisville / Virginia TV channel: ACCN
The Louisville Cardinals visit John Paul Jones Arena to take on the Virginia Cavaliers on Jan. 4. Tip off is scheduled for 4:00pm EST in Charlottesville, VA.
Louisville is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-105).
The Louisville vs. Virginia Over/Under is 129.5 total points.
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Louisville vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Louisville | -5.5 -105 | O 129.5 -110 | -225 |
| Virginia | +5.5 -115 | U 129.5 -110 | +180 |
Louisville vs Virginia Prediction for Today:
The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this college basketball game with 79.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.
Louisville vs Virginia Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 58.1% confidence for today’s game.
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Louisville Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Louisville has hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 12 away games (+3.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 away games (+1.15 Units / 8% ROI)
Virginia Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games (+11.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 18 of their last 33 games (+2.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 20 games at home (+1.20 Units / 5% ROI)
Louisville Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)
Louisville has a 7-7 record against the spread this college basketball season (-0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- 9-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 1.32% ROI
- 4-10 when betting the Over for -7.05 Units / -45.63% ROI
- 10-4 when betting the Under for +5.65 Units / 36.69% ROI
Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)
Virginia has a 6-7 record against the spread this college basketball season (-1.7 Units / -11.93% ROI).
- 9-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.45 Units / 8.74% ROI
- 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
- 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends:
Louisville has attempted 448 threes this season — most among ACC Teams
Louisville is shooting 29% from three (188/656) at home since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 35%
Louisville has attempted 215 threes in the second half this season — most among ACC Teams
Louisville has averaged 5.4 assists per game (245 assists/45 games) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.9
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:
Virginia has averaged 62.2 points per game (809 points/13 games) this season — 2nd lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 79.6
Virginia had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.9 (474 assists/ 255 TOs) last season — tied for 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.2
Virginia has averaged 7.2 offensive rebounds per game (93 rebounds/13 games) this season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 11.5
Virginia has averaged 62.2 points per game (809 points/13 games) this season — 2nd lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 79.6
Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends:
Louisville allowed an average of 1.35 points per shot (2,463 points/1,827 shots) last season — tied for highest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.23
Louisville averaged 5.5 steals per game (169 steals/31 games) last season — tied for 45th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 6.7
Louisville allowed opponents to shoot 37% from three (266/714) last season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 34%
Louisville allowed an average of 1.35 points per shot (2,463 points/1,827 shots) last season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.22
Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:
Virginia allowed 25.9 points per game (803 points/31 games) in the first half last season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.5
Virginia allowed 25.9 points per game (803 points/31 games) in the first half last season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.5
Virginia allowed 59.2 points per game (1,835 points/31 games) last season — 2nd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 72.0
Virginia has allowed 26.4 points per game (1,162 points/44 games) in the first half since the start of the 2023-24 season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 33.3
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