Valparaiso vs Murray State Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Jan. 11

No 24 from Murray State Racers catching the NBA game ball
(AP Photo)
  • Murray State is a -7.5 point favorite vs Valparaiso
  • Total (Over/Under): 145.5 points
  • Valparaiso / Murray State TV channel: ESPN+

The Valparaiso Beacons visit CFSB Center to take on the Murray State Racers on Jan. 11. Tip off is scheduled for 4:00pm EST in Murray, KY.

Murray State is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Valparaiso vs. Murray State Over/Under is 145.5 total points.

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Valparaiso vs. Murray State Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Valparaiso+7.5 -115O 145.5 -110+260
Murray State -7.5 -105U 145.5 -110-350

Valparaiso vs Murray State Prediction for Today:

The winning team model predicts Murray State will win this college basketball game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.

Valparaiso vs Murray State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Valparaiso will cover the spread with 52.9% confidence for today’s game.


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  • Valparaiso has hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Valparaiso has hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 30 games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Valparaiso have covered the Spread in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Valparaiso has hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Valparaiso has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 17 of their last 30 games (+2.15 Units / 6% ROI)
  • Murray State has hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games at home (+10.40 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Murray State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.45 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Murray State has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.45 Units / 24% ROI)

Valparaiso Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Valparaiso has a 9-5 record against the spread this college basketball season (+3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI).

  • 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 11.67% ROI
  • 9-5 when betting the Over for +3.5 Units / 22.8% ROI
  • 5-9 when betting the Under for -4.95 Units / -32.04% ROI

Murray State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Murray State has a 6-8 record against the spread this college basketball season (-2.9 Units / -17.47% ROI).

  • 8-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -0.99% ROI
  • 8-6 when betting the Over for +1.4 Units / 8.48% ROI
  • 6-8 when betting the Under for -2.8 Units / -16.97% ROI

Valparaiso Offensive Stats & Trends:

Valparaiso averaged 1.10 points per shot (2,093 points/1,899 shots) last season — 4th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Valparaiso had an eFG% of 47% last season — tied for 10th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 51%

Valparaiso averaged 24% free throw attempts for every field goal attempt (453 free throw attempts/1,899 field goal attempts) last season — 2nd lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 33%

Valparaiso shot 32% from three (224/693) last season — tied for 31st lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%

Murray State Offensive Stats & Trends:

Murray State averaged 1.21 points per shot (2,232 points/1,841 shots) last season — tied for 37th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Murray State has averaged 12.1 assists per game (194 assists/16 games) this season — lowest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 14.6

Murray State averaged 9.5 turnovers per game (303 turnovers/32 games) last season — tied for best among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 11.3

Murray State averaged 11.5 assists per game (368 assists/32 games) last season — tied for 42nd lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 13.4

Valparaiso Defensive Stats & Trends:

Valparaiso has averaged 5.6 steals per game (90 steals/16 games) this season — 2nd lowest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 7.0

Valparaiso has averaged 5.6 steals per game (90 steals/16 games) this season — tied for 39th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 7.2

Valparaiso has allowed opponents to shoot 47% (1,290/2,737) since the start of the 2023-24 season — tied for 5th highest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 44%

Valparaiso has allowed opponents to shoot 46% (430/939) this season — tied for 35th highest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 43%

Murray State Defensive Stats & Trends:

Murray State has allowed 5.0 made three-pointers per game this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 7.6

Murray State has 116 steals this season — 5th most among Missouri Valley Teams

Murray State has averaged 7.2 steals per game (116 steals/16 games) this season — tied for 4th best among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 7.0

Murray State allowed opponents to shoot 37% from three (273/743) last season — 13th highest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.