Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Feb. 25

min read
North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis directs his team against Boston College during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2023, in Chapel Hill, N.C.
(AP Photo/Chris Seward)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 25, 2023, 11:53 AM
  • North Carolina (17-11) is a -3.5 point favorite vs Virginia (21-5)
  • Total (Over/Under): 131.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Virginia Cavaliers (21-5) visit Dean Smith Center to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (17-11) on Feb. 25. Tip off is scheduled for 6:00pm EST in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Virginia vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 131.5 total points.

Bet now on North Carolina vs Virginia & all college basketball games with BetMGM

Virginia vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Virginia+3.5 -115O 131.5 -110+135
North Carolina -3.5 -105U 131.5 -110-160

Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this game with 55.4% confidence.

Virginia vs North Carolina Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and North Carolina, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Bet now on North Carolina vs Virginia and all games with BetMGM


  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 45 games (+13.65 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+3.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.10 Units / 7% ROI)
  • North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • North Carolina have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has gone 10-15 against the spread this college basketball season (-6.5 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 17-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.55 Units / 7.09% ROI
  • 13-13 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • 13-13 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / -4.55% ROI

North Carolina Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

North Carolina has gone 8-20 against the spread this college basketball season (-14.05 Units / -45.54% ROI).

  • 13-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -6.14% ROI
  • 12-16 when betting the Over for -5.6 Units / -18.18% ROI
  • 16-12 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 9.09% ROI

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (159 assists/ 97 TOs) in the second half this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.1

North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina has 24.7 free throw attempts per game this season — tied for 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 18.4

North Carolina has 1,815 defensive rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — most among ACC Teams

North Carolina has a 41% free throw rate (543 free throw attempts/1,318 field goal attempts) this season — 3rd highest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 31%

North Carolina has attempted 543 free throws this season — most among ACC Teams

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

North Carolina Defensive Stats & Trends:

North Carolina has averaged 29.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,815 rebounds/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.4

North Carolina has averaged 29.8 defensive rebounds per game (1,815 rebounds/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

North Carolina has averaged 29.0 defensive rebounds per game (637 rebounds/22 games) this season — 4th best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

North Carolina has allowed an average of 1.15 points per shot (1,578 points/1,367 shots) this season — tied for 38th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.21


Bet now on North Carolina vs Virginia and all games with BetMGM


College Basketball Betting at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated college basketball betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.