NFL Expert Picks Week 7: Cowboys Offense Thrives at Home

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 7 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

The slate begins on Thursday with Bengals vs Steelers in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh improved to 4-1 on Sunday with a win over Cleveland and now finds itself as the favorite in the AFC North. 

Week 7 also features another international game: Rams vs Jaguars in London. 

SNF features 49ers vs Falcons, while bettors get another MNF doubleheader: Lions vs Buccaneers and Seahawks vs Texans. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Seahawks vs Texans Prediction: Total Under 42 Points (-110)

Based on Houston’s defensive strength against good competition and Seattle’s extended rest, my Seahawks vs Texans prediction is the Total Under 42 Points (-110). 

Houston plays this game off a bye week. Accordingly, I carry a lot of faith in the defense showing up. 

Through five games, Houston ranks fourth in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. They’ve accomplished that feat against the league’s 11th-hardest set of offenses. 

Seattle offers a difficult test offensively. Behind Sam Darnold, the Seahawks entered Week 6 third in offensive DVOA. 

But Houston carries a key edge over Seattle’s offense. The Texans rank third in pass-rush win rate while Seattle ranks 22nd in the corresponding offensive category, per ESPN. 

I simultaneously rate Monday’s game a good sell-high spot on Houston’s offense. 

Houston scored 44 points against a banged-up Ravens defense. Excluding Baltimore’s Week 6 performance, the Ravens ranked 26th in defensive DVOA. 

Now the offense takes a step up in competition. Seattle limited Jacksonville to only 12 points in Week 6 and sat seventh in defensive DVOA before the matchup. 

Seattle’s lone concerning performance came against Tampa Bay. The team allowed 38 points in Week 5, but it came against a top-10 DVOA offense. 

Houston ranks 17th in offensive DVOA, having faced the league’s 24th-hardest set of defenses. 

Lastly, history suggests this game could prove a low-scoring one. 

Since 2003, games featuring a total between 42 and 45.5 have been 64% to the under, assuming two factors:

• The home team has 8-9 days between games
• The away team has 8-15 days between games

Since 2018, those games are 31-5 to the under.

Broncos vs Giants Prediction: Giants Spread (+7, -115)

Based on Denver’s ATS struggles this season and the Giants’ rest advantage, my Broncos vs Giants prediction is the Giants Spread (+7, -115). 

Are we really about to say the Giants and Jets are the same team? The Jets closed at +7.5 in London against Denver….and easily covered the number. 

Now the Broncos have to fly back home from an international game. To make matters worse, the Giants enter with momentum off a blowout win against the Eagles last Thursday! 

Denver has covered this number only twice this season. Once came against Cam Ward in his first NFL start, and the second came as 7.5-point home favorites against Cincinnati. 

While Denver ranks 11th in total DVOA, the record has come against the league’s third-easiest schedule, per ftnfantasy.com. 

New York ranks 11 spots lower, but it has come against the 10th-hardest set of opponents. Defensively, only three teams have played harder schedules than the Giants. 

Now the unit gets a Broncos offense 19th in DVOA. Additionally, the team could barely move the ball against a really bad Jets defense. 

Given the Giants rank ninth in rushing success rate since Week 4, it’s my belief they can shorten the game and keep this matchup within a touchdown. 

Browns vs Dolphins Prediction: Total Under 40.5 Points (-110)

Based on Cleveland’s defensive strength and lack of offensive ability, my Browns vs Dolphins prediction is the Total Under 40.5 Points (-110). 

The best unit on the field is Cleveland’s defense. The Browns rank 12th in defensive DVOA and have played a brutal schedule:

• Bengals at Full Health
• Ravens at Full Health
• Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota
• Pittsburgh off a London game

Yet, only two Browns games have cleared this figure. Those came at Baltimore and Detroit, with the latter clearing 40.5 off a punt return TD and Jake Bates’ 58-yard field goal. 

Miami’s offense presents no threat to the Browns. The Dolphins rank 19th in offensive DVOA, having faced the league’s 26th-hardest set of defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

To date, Miami hasn’t played any of the league’s 12 best defenses. 

At the same time, I rate this a strong buy-low spot on Miami’s defense. Although the team sits 31st in defensive DVOA, only seven teams have played harder schedules. 

Cleveland’s offense represents the easiest test for Miami….by a mile. 

Ultimately, one team has to get to 21 for me to feel uncomfortable with the under. Either team achieving that feat would surprise me. 

Lastly, Browns home games are 16-3 to the under with Kevin Stefanski when the total closes between 38 and 43. 

Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction: Cowboys Over 27.5 Points (-102)

Based on Washington’s lack of experience against good offenses and the Cowboys’ home offensive success, my Cowboys vs Commanders prediction is the Cowboys Over 27.5 Points (-102). 

Washington sits 14th in defensive DVOA entering this matchup, per ftnfantasy.com. It’s all smoke and mirrors, though, as only two teams have played easier defensive schedules. 

That helps explain why Washington has allowed only 21 points per game. However, performances against the Giants (bad) and Chargers (hurt) flatter the output. 

On Sunday, the Commanders defense faces its hardest opponent to date. Dallas ranks seventh in offensive DVOA, three spots ahead of the Packers. 

Plus, Dallas has proved efficient against this number versus better defenses. They scored 40 against Green Bay – without CeeDee Lamb – which ranks second in defensive DVOA. 

Lamb could also return to an offense that hasn’t turned the ball over since Week 4. Even more helpful? They get the Commanders on a short week road game. 

Based on those factors, I predict the Cowboys will clear this benchmark for the second time in three games.

NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Four sides qualify as a consensus pick this week with at least 70% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• New England Patriots (-7): 86% of bets placed
• Green Bay Packers (-6.5): 76% of bets placed
• Detroit Lions (-5.5): 74% of bets placed
• Cleveland Browns (-2.5): 74% of bets placed

Get NFL public betting data on all Week 7 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages.

Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.