- Bournemouth is predicted to be a -0.5-goal home favorite against Fulham.
- Bournemouth has lost each of its last three EPL matches as a home favorite.
- My Bournemouth vs. Fulham prediction is the total over 2.5 goals.
To close out Matchday 32 of the Premier League slate, Bournemouth hosts Fulham at the Vitality Stadium.
The Cherries played to a 2-2 draw at West Ham United last Saturday and sit 10th in the table. Not since February 15 has Andoni Iraola’s side earned all three points in a league match.
Fulham throttled Liverpool 3-2 at home on Sunday with a 3-1 edge at halftime. The win moved Marco Silva’s side to eighth in the table, five points outside of the top five.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Bournemouth vs. Fulham prediction.
Bournemouth vs Fulham: Premier League Odds
- Bournemouth Moneyline: +110
- Fulham Moneyline: +230
- Draw Moneyline: +250
- Game Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-165), “No” (+115)
Fulham vs Bournemouth: Prediction
Based on Bournemouth’s expected regression, especially at home, my Bournemouth vs. Fulham prediction is the Total Over 2.5 Goals (-145).
While it’s a lot of juice to lay, the larger point is that Bournemouth matches should almost never feature a total of 2.5 goals.
Contributing to that belief is that Bournemouth matches have massively underperformed this season from a total goals standpoint.
To date, Bournemouth’s 31 fixtures totaled 91 goals compared to 97.5 expected goals and 104.7 post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.
In terms of the latter figure, Bournemouth has scored 50 goals off 57.1 post-shot xG, the largest underperformance in the league.
Defensively, the Cherries surrendered 40 goals off 47.6 post-shot xGA. That leads the Premier League from a luck perspective.
Earlier this season, Bournemouth and Fulham played a rager of a match.
The match finished 2-2 – the fifth straight meeting that cleared 2.5 goals – with 3.09 xG and 4.86 post-shot xG combined, per fotmob.com.
While Bournemouth matches have generally proved higher-scoring on the road, Fulham has struggled defensively in recent road matches.
Each of Fulham’s last two road games saw the opponents – Arsenal and Brighton – clear 1.5 xG. Across Fulham’s last eight road games, seven cleared 2.5 goals.
History likes this match to clear 2.5 goals as well.
Since 2012, matches featuring a total of 2.5 are 100-55 (64.5%) to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.5 and 1.9
- The road team’s average number of goals allowed falls between 1.4 and 1.8
Just over the last two seasons, those matches are 35-14 (71.4%) to the over.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-3 | 57.8% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-12-1 | 60.9% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
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