- Newcastle is predicted to be a -1.5-goal home favorite against Everton.
- Newcastle United has won each of its last six EPL home matches.
- My Newcastle vs. Everton prediction depends on Alexander Isak.
With a chance to secure a Champions League spot, Newcastle host Everton at St. James’ Park.
The Magpies, without Alexander Isak, suffered a 1-0 defeat at Arsenal on Sunday. The loss leaves Newcastle third, but it could drop to fourth if Man City beat Bournemouth on Tuesday.
Everton cruised to a 2-0 home win over Southampton in the final match at Goodison Park. The win left Everton 13th in the league table with nothing for which to play on Sunday.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs. Everton prediction.
Newcastle vs Everton: Premier League Odds
- Newcastle United Moneyline: -285
- Draw Moneyline: +425
- Everton Moneyline: +725
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+135)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-120), “No” (-118)
Everton vs Newcastle: Prediction
If Alexander Isak fails to feature in the Starting XI for Newcastle on Sunday, my Newcastle vs Everton prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (+135).
The reverse fixture at Goodison Park finished 0-0, with Isak missing that match for manager Eddie Howe. Excluding Newcastle’s penalty, they managed only two shots on target.
Cumulatively, Newcastle managed only 0.86 post-shot expected goals without Isak. Excluding the penalty, it drops to 0.07.
That demonstrates a continued trend for Newcastle without Isak. All four matches without the Swedish international finished under 2.5 goals, with Newcastle managing only one goal.
Of course, three of those matches saw Newcastle close as a market underdog. As a home favorite, that trend could easily reverse come Sunday.
But I’m willing to place trust in an Everton side that has played low-event matches away from home.
Through 18 EPL matches, Everton and their opponents combined for 2.22 expected goals per 90 minutes. Only five of those 18 cleared 2.5 goals, including two in the last 11.
Offensively, Everton have struggled immensely against Howe’s Newcastle. Over the last five meetings, Everton averaged 0.62 non-penalty psxG, per fotmob.com.
Newcastle’s defense has simultaneously excelled against bad attacks this season. In 13 games against the seven-worst attacks by post-shot xG, Newcastle allowed 0.82 xGA per 90.
Only one of those opponents managed two or more goals against Newcastle. That came all the way back in November.
Seeing as Everton outrank only three teams in road expected goals, I’ll back the under if Isak fails to feature.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
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