- Nottingham Forest is predicted to be a +0.5-goal home underdog against Chelsea.
- The home team has won 13 of Chelsea's last 16 EPL matches.
- My Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (+105).
A significant amount is on the line Sunday at the City Ground with Nottingham Forest hosting Chelsea.
Depending on Manchester City’s result on Tuesday, Chelsea could need a win to secure a Champions League place. As it stands, Enzo Maresca’s side sits fourth in the league.
Nottingham Forest sit seventh in the table after a 2-1 win over West Ham. Forest needs a lot of help to qualify for the UCL, but can influence their European competition with a result.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea prediction.
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea: Premier League Odds
- Nottingham Forest Moneyline: +225
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Chelsea Moneyline: +110
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+110)
- Both Teams to Score: “Yes” (-165), “No” (+115)
Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest: Prediction
Based on Chelsea’s offensive struggles without Nicholas Jackson and Forest’s strong defensive record as a home dog, my Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea prediction is Under 2.5 Goals (+105).
This match represents a pure clash in styles. Forest home matches this season averaged just over 2.2 expected goals per 90, while Chelsea road matches averaged just north of three.
Largely, it’s a price play for me here. Only once in Chelsea’s last five matches have they cleared one expected goal. That came against Liverpool off a title-clincher with Chelsea at home.
On Matchday 37, Chelsea created only 0.8 xG against Manchester United. Currently, United sit six spots below Nottingham Forest in post-shot xGA.
Although Forest rank ninth cumulatively in that metric, their defensive record improves drastically at home.
Per fbref.com, the Tricky Trees surrendered 1.04 xGA per 90 through 18 at home compared to 1.53 xGA per 90 through 19 on the road.
In four matches as home underdogs, Forest held three opponents to one or fewer goals. Only Newcastle managed to clear its team total in those four matches.
While Chelsea managed 2.5 xG at home against Forest, 1.15 of that total came after a Forest red card.
That said, I rate Sunday’s match as a prime sell-high spot against the Forest attack. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side created 1.9 xG, but it came as road favorites.
In 11 matches against the six-best defenses by post-shot xG, Forest have cleared 1.5 goals only once (at Newcastle). That’s also the only time they cleared 1.1 xG.
Across all 11 matches, Forest accumulated only 0.68 expected goals per 90 minutes.
As a result, I like taking the plus money and backing under 2.5 goals on Sunday.
Premier League Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Crystal Palace | Wolves | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Manchester City | Bournemouth | May. 20 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
Premier League ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-15-2 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-5-2 | 66.7% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 19-13-4 | 58.3% | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 12-24-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-14-3 | 56.9% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
Premier League Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Manchester City | 19-8-9 | 65 | 24 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-11 | 53 | 11 |
| Crystal Palace | 12-13-11 | 49 | -2 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-19 | 41 | -13 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
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