- Nottingham Forest is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Tottenham.
- Tottenham is 5-0-1 (W-D-L) in last six games against Nottingham Forest.
- My Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham prediction is the Forest Spread.
Following a home beatdown against Liverpool, Tottenham travel to face Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day.
Tottenham fell 6-3 as home underdogs to the league leaders, ending a two-match winning streak in all competitions. As it stands, Tottenham sits 11th in the league table.
Forest picked up a 2-0 win as road dogs against Brentford to move fourth in the Premier League table. That win gave Forest a third straight win and fourth win in their previous five games.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham prediction.
Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham Odds, Premier League
Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham Prediction
Based on Tottenham’s defensive absentees and their weak record away from home, my Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham prediction is Nottingham Forest Draw, No Bet (-135).
Until Spurs return their central defenders from injury, this team essentially needs to score three or more goals to have a chance at victory.
Even if you throw out Tottenham’s results against Chelsea and Liverpool recently, this remains a side that has struggled away from home.
In their last trip to a side with a positive expected goal differential at home, Tottenham fell 1-0 to Bournemouth while allowing 3.3 expected goals.
Now, they get a Forest side that has avoided defeat in six of eight matches at the City Ground this season. One such loss came without talisman Morgan Gibbs-White in the lineup.
Plus, although Forest fell 3-1 in their last meeting against Spurs, the underlying metrics suggested they ran unlucky in that match.
Expected goals rated the fixture equal with both teams creating 1.55 xG. Even by post-shot xG, Spurs finished with only a +0.5 edge at home.
History also suggests this is a good spot to bet Forest avoiding defeat with a win the likeliest outcome.
Since 2012, home favorites between -135 and +156 in match 12 onward are 42-20 SU, assuming two factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin is -4 or -3
- The favorite played away from home in their last game
When those teams are coming off a win, they’re 12-2 SU and have avoided defeat in all 14 matches.
As a result, grab the short price on Forest to achieve at least a result at home.
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