The 2021 Mountain West Championship features Utah State at San Diego State. BetMGM’s latest college football odds have the Aztecs as five and a half point favorites.
San Diego State ranks 19th on the latest CFP rankings and will have home-field advantage in this game.
Can they cover the spread and win the Mountain West Championship? Here are some of my predictions for this game.
Utah State +6
Considering that the San Diego State Aztecs are ranked as highly as they are, and the Utah State Aggies are unranked, it jumped out to me that the Aggies were underdogs by less than a touchdown in a road game.
I think Utah State matches up well here because San Diego State had difficulty against the top offenses in the Mountain West.
The only two teams in the conference that average more points per game than the Aggies are Fresno State and Nevada. San Diego State played both of those teams at home this season, losing to Fresno State and escaping against Nevada, winning by only two points.
San Diego State has the 11th ranked defense in total yards allowed per game, but that can be a bit misleading. They rank second against the run, but against the pass, the Aztecs rank 80th. This could be an issue against Utah State, which is 16th in passing yards per game (304.3).
Utah State has covered in eight of their twelve games this year. So with all of that in mind, I like the Aggies to keep it close.
I lean under the total for this game. But, as I said above, I see this game being very similar to the ones that San Diego State played out against Fresno State and Nevada earlier this season.
In those games, the point totals were 50 points and then 44 points.
I also expect Utah State to run the ball despite San Diego State allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the conference (78.7).
However, some teams can run against the Aztecs. Fresno State put up 179 rushing yards against them, and Air Force (who likes to run the triple option) gained 192. Considering that the Aggies have averaged 153.2 rushing yards per game this season, I see no reason they cannot reach triple digits.
If Utah State can run the ball, expect a lot of long possessions that eat the clock. San Diego State’s offense has also struggled this year. They only average 27.7 points per game, which is 72nd in the nation. They also run the ball around 40 times a game on average vs. around 25 passes. Even if Utah State can’t run the ball against the Aztecs, I don’t expect San Diego State to score more than 24 points, meaning Utah State would need to score 27 points to hit the over.
Utah State +6.5 and Under 50.5 (+270)
If you agree with both picks above, one option you may want to consider is an alternative bet that combines both the spread and the under. This particular one gets you an extra half-point on the spread while offering relatively favorable odds at +270.
It is a good one to make if you are looking for something that offers a little higher return, and as I said above, I think Utah State could keep this game close or win outright.
Make Your Utah State at San Diego State Predictions
These are some of my best bets for the Utah State at San Diego State Mountain West Championship. Do you agree with these picks, or would you bet the opposite way?
You can place your bets on this game and much more here at BetMGM, the best online sportsbook for all of your sports betting needs. Create an account today and receive a First Bet Offer worth up to $1,000.
Place College Football Bets at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet on college football with updated college football odds, parlays, live betting, and more.
The best mobile sports betting and online sports betting experiences are at the online sportsbook throughout the season.