- The Kentucky is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Vanderbilt
- The Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
The Vanderbilt Commodores (3-2) visit Kroger Field to take on the Kentucky Wildcats (3-2) on Oct. 12 in Lexington, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT.
Kentucky is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-115).
The Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Over/Under is 46.5 total points.
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Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Vanderbilt | +13.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +400 |
| Kentucky | -13.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -550 |
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Kentucky will win this game with 83.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Vanderbilt and Kentucky, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kentucky will cover the spread with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Vanderbilt Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Vanderbilt has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+2.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+1.85 Units / 3% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.70 Units / 12% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Vanderbilt players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Vanderbilt Player Prop Bets Today
- Diego Pavia has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Kentucky Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Barion Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Vanderbilt is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).
- Vanderbilt is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 10.09% ROI
- Vanderbilt is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
- Vanderbilt is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI
Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kentucky is 4-1 against the spread this college football season (+2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI).
- Kentucky is 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 7.43% ROI
- Kentucky is 1-4 when betting the Over for -3.4 Units / -61.82% ROI
- Kentucky is 4-1 when betting the Under for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky
Vanderbilt is 2-10 (.167) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .611
Vanderbilt is 2-10 (.167) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: .543
Vanderbilt is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481
Vanderbilt is 3-10 (.231) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .542
Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt
Kentucky is 3-5 (.375) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .506
Kentucky is 3-7 (.300) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-39th-worst in FBS; Average: .438
Kentucky is 2-5 (.286) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .490
Kentucky is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .481
Matchup Notes for Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
Kentucky’s WRs has 185 receptions in 18 games (just 10.3 per game) since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS WRs. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 22.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — worst among SEC defenses.
Kentucky has 279 receptions in 18 games (just 15.5 per game) since the 2023 season — T-21st-worst among FBS skill players. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 22.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — worst among SEC defenses.
Kentucky’s WRs has 185 receptions in 18 games (just 10.3 per game) since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS WRs. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 22.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-worst among P5 defenses.
Vanderbilt’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt’s TEs has 29 receptions in 5 games (5.8 per game) this season — 2nd-best among SEC TEs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 1.8 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt’s WRs has gained 461 yards on 29 receptions (15.9 YPR) this season — T-14th-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.
Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends
Vanderbilt’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt’s TEs has 29 receptions in 5 games (5.8 per game) this season — 2nd-best among SEC TEs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 1.8 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt’s WRs has gained 461 yards on 29 receptions (15.9 YPR) this season — T-14th-best among FBS WRs. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-worst among SEC defenses.
Vanderbilt has gained 987 yards on 69 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — 4th-best among SEC skill players. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-33rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt has gained 987 yards on 69 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — 15th-best among FBS skill players. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 12.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-33rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky TEs have averaged 20.0 yards per reception (400 yards/20 catches) on 1st down since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 12.5
Kentucky TEs have averaged 17.6 yards per reception (650 yards/37 catches) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6
Kentucky QBs have 7 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Kentucky’s WRs has 185 receptions in 18 games (just 10.3 per game) since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS WRs. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 22.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — worst among SEC defenses.
Kentucky has 279 receptions in 18 games (just 15.5 per game) since the 2023 season — T-21st-worst among FBS skill players. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 22.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — worst among SEC defenses.
Vanderbilt Commodores Defensive Stats & Trends
Vanderbilt has sacked opposing QBs on just 6% of pass attempts (32/573) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%
Vanderbilt has allowed 265.5 Passing Yards per game (4,513/17) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 216.4
Vanderbilt has allowed 8.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (466 yards / 55 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.3
Vanderbilt has averaged a sack every 17.9 pass attempts (573 Pass Attempts/32 Sacks) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 12.7
Vanderbilt allowed passes of 40+ yards on 3 of 24 attempts (12%) last week– worst in the SEC; Average: 3%
Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 16 of 104 attempts (15%) this season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 10%
Kentucky has not allowed an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 60 carries on 1st down this season– best in the SEC; Average: 10%
Kentucky has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 59 of 588 carries (10%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in the SEC; Average: 12%
Kentucky has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on just 6 of their 588 carries (1%) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 3%
Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (356 completions/534 attempts) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
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