- The W Michigan is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Ball State
- The Western Michigan vs. Ball State Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Western Michigan Broncos (1-3) visit Scheumann Stadium to take on the Ball State Cardinals (1-3) on Oct. 5 in Muncie, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00pm EDT.
W Michigan is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-105).
The Western Michigan vs. Ball State Over/Under is 55.5 total points.
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Western Michigan vs. Ball State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Western Michigan | -9.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -350 |
| Ball State | +9.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | +280 |
Western Michigan vs Ball State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Western Michigan will win this game with 70.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both W Michigan and Ball State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Western Michigan vs Ball State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ball State will cover the spread with 64.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Western Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record
W Michigan is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
- Western Michigan is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
- Western Michigan is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Western Michigan is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ball State is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Ball State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -28.57% ROI
- Ball State is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 91.95% ROI
- Ball State is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.45 Units / -100% ROI
Western Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
Western Michigan is 2-11 (.154) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .487
Western Michigan is 4-10 (.286) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .545
Western Michigan is 2-4 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .506
Western Michigan is 5-8 (.385) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .630
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Western Michigan
Ball State is 1-9 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .386
Ball State is 3-9 (.250) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .451
Ball State is 2-9 (.182) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– 15th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .345
Ball State is 1-9 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .461
Matchup Notes for Western Michigan vs. Ball State
Ball State’s RBs has rushed for 1,724 yards on 380 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-26th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Michigan’s defense have allowed 5.7 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s RBs has rushed for 1,724 yards on 380 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-26th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Michigan’s defense have allowed 4.7 YPC since the 2023 season — T-22nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan’s offense has thrown for 643 passing yards in 4 games (just 160.8 YPG) this season — T-16th-worst among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense has allowed 310.8 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Hayden Wolff (WMC) has thrown for 394 yards on 33 pass attempts (11.9 YPA) on first down this season — 8th-best of Qualified Quarterbacks. Ball State’s defense has allowed 9.2 YPA on first down this season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Michigan WRs have averaged a touchdown every 4.7 receptions (14 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9
Western Michigan Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.2 receptions (25 Rec/6 TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0
Western Michigan’s offense has thrown for 643 passing yards in 4 games (just 160.8 YPG) this season — T-16th-worst among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense has allowed 310.8 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Western Michigan Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 4.2 receptions (21 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0
Western Michigan WRs have fumbled 4 times this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State TEs have averaged 7.5 receptions per game (30/4) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.2
Ball State RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 4 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.3
Ball State Skill Players have averaged just 9.0 yards per reception (2,453 yards/272 catches) since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Ball State’s RBs has rushed for 1,724 yards on 380 carries (just 4.5 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-26th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Michigan’s defense have allowed 5.7 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State WRs averaged a touchdown every 33.0 receptions (99 Rec/3 TDs) in the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.9
Western Michigan Broncos Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Michigan has no interceptions and 5 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Western Michigan has no interceptions and 5 TD passes allowed this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 1.6
Western Michigan has no interceptions (109 pass attempts) this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 40.7
Western Michigan has no interceptions (109 pass attempts) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 35.5
Western Michigan did not allow any rushing touchdowns on 39 rushes last week– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.7
Ball State Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State has not recorded a sack (62 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0
Ball State allowed 5 TD passes last week– T-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Ball State has not recorded a sack (62 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.2
Ball State has allowed 10.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (2,119 yards / 206 touches) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 6.6
Ball State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 26 of 122 attempts (21%) this season– best in FBS; Average: 10%
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