What Is Implied Probability In Sports Betting?

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Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) takes part in drills during an NFL football mandatory minicamp Wednesday, June 12, 2024, at the team's headquarters in Centennial, Colo.
(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Chase Kiddy @chaseakiddy Jun 20, 2024, 1:59 PM

In online sports betting, implied probability is the idea that every individual odds offering carries with it an implied chance of an event happening.

For instance, a -250 favorite has an implied 71.4% chance to win. A big +800 underdog has only an 11.1% chance to win. 

Many successful bettors consider the implied probability of a betting price and weigh it against what they believe are the true odds of a betting side. 

How to Calculate Implied Odds & Probability

The simplest advice on how to calculate implied odds is to use an odds converter or implied odds calculator. You can input the vigorish of the bet you’re considering, and the calculator will automatically tell you the implied probability of the bet.

For bettors that want to do the math themselves, that often means learning the difference between American, decimal, and fractional odds

For example, bettors who understand that +300 is the same as 3/1 will very easily be able to calculate a 25% implied probability.

Implied probability calculations can be especially helpful when considering parlays. For more on that, check out our parlay calculator explainer. 

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.