The New York Yankees (+195) visit Hammond Stadium to take on the Minnesota Twins (-250) on Saturday, March 9, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers, FL.
This season, the Yankees are 4-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 5-4 ATS.
Yankees vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +195 |
| Twins | -250 |
Yankees vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.6% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 6 away games (+1.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+1.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Franchy Cordero has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Everson Pereira has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Yankees are 5-6 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -13.61% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.08 Units / -25.17% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -12.92% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 4.09% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Twins are 5-4 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 3.37% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -8.81% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.38 Units / -35.1% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 26.06% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nestor Cortes has averaged 79.6 MPH on sliders since the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — fourth Percentile.
Nestor Cortes’ lowest spin rate on fastballs since last season is 1853.0 RPM — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1212.5
Nestor Cortes has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH on the 206 breaking pitches put in play against him since the 2021 season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 87.4.
Nestor Cortes’ lowest spin rate on fastballs since the 2021 season is 1853.0 RPM — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 1124.1
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober threw his changeup 25% of the time (147/580) on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Bailey Ober threw fastballs up 79% of the time (840/1,063) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 17% (32/185) against Bailey Ober in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober threw fastballs up 87% of the time (311/356) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Yankees were just 11-41 (.212) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
The Yankees are 44-48 (.478) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Yankees are 108-28 (.794) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Yankees are 19-17 (.528) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Twins are just 13-27 (.325) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are just 29-44 (.397) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Twins were 31-10 (.756) when they scored in the first inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees batted just .227 in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Yankees batted just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
Yankees hitters had a groundball batting average of just .212 in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Twins hitters struck out 1,654 times in 6,219 PA’s (27%) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees won just just 14% of the time in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Yankees pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in 65% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers walked 443 of 6,028 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers walked 99 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wandy Peralta (New York Yankees): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Calf, Out
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