Acapulco Open Predictions: My Top 3 Bets for ATP Acapulco

There are three full months before the tennis betting world turns its attention to Roland Garros and the French Open odds market.

In the meantime, there are plenty of tour tennis odds to concentrate on for both the men’s and women’s games.

Several of the most prominent players from the men’s tour will head down to Mexico this week, where Acapulco is hosting one of two ATP 500 events this week.

ATP Acapulco Predictions: My Top 3 Bets from Acapulco

With the ATP Acapulco draw set to begin on Monday, here are three bets I like for the first round.

ATP Acapulco 2023: Taylor Fritz vs. John Isner

Experienced tennis odds maestros know just the trick I’m aiming for here. American tennis staple John Isner is known for his laser serve, which netted him the all-time record for career aces last summer at Wimbledon 2022.

Isner has played hundreds of tiebreaks throughout his career. That’s because his average match has a very well-worn script: Isner’s serve is near-impossible to break, while Isner himself isn’t much for finding and converting break points. He generally either wins a set, 7-6, or loses it, 6-7.

For that reason, tennis bettors love to hit the over on Isner total games props. You can even tell how popular a strategy this is by the number itself – normally, a total like this would be something like 22.5, but the sportsbook has the price all the way up at 25.5 in order to protect itself a bit.

For this over to hit, bettors need either consecutive tiebreak sets or a three-set match between Isner and Fritz. 

Fortunately, that’s exactly what fans have seen in four of the five career head-to-head matches between the two players. That also fits the bill for three of the five matches Isner played in his last tournament, at ATP Dallas, including a first-round victory over Chun Hsin Tseng that he won 7-6, 7-6. 

Play: Fritz/Isner Over 25.5 Games

ATP Acapulco 2023: Denis Shapovalov vs. Miomir Kecmanovic 

As of Sunday afternoon, Shapovalov is -140 over Kecmanovic, who is the No. 1 Serbian player in the world not named Novak Djokovic. 

Shapovalov is 2-0 head-to-head against Kecmanovic, with two main-draw tour matches (both on hardcourt) back in 2019. Given that Shapovalov also has a slightly higher ATP ranking than Kecmanovic right now, this slight favorite status makes all the sense in the world.

Except… Shapovalov appears to be in a rut right now. He hasn’t won a match since the Australian Open, dropping his first match at Dallas and Delray Beach to players outside of the ATP top 60.

Kecmanovic is the total opposite. His run to the final round at Delray one week ago was one of the finest weeks of his career, earning impressive wins against Marcos Giron and Radu Albot, both of whom were showing impressive form. He even pushed Taylor Fritz to a third set in the final round. 

There’s not necessarily a bad price to exploit here from the online sportsbook; I think Kecmanovic is the better player right now. I’m jumping at the plus odds that are available for a situation like this.

Play: Miomir Kecmanovic +110

ATP Acapulco 2023: Emilio Gomez vs. Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul has played a strong six months of tennis, ascending to a career-best ATP ranking in the first part of the 2023 tour season. 

Last week, though, Paul just wasn’t on his game during an uncharacteristically sloppy straight-set loss to Radu Albot. The loss followed an extended weather delay that radically shifted the schedule.

I’m willing to bet that Paul comes out in Mexico and emphatically puts that loss behind him against an opponent that’s simply not in his class.

I’m unwilling to lay 4.5 games for a more lucrative payout, so I’ll take the semi-conservative path here with a straight-set moneyline. 

Play: Tommy Paul Wins in Straight Sets -175