Novak Djokovic, Wimbledon Have Proved an Impossible Pairing

The men’s draw at Wimbledon is working its way through the quarterfinals, with only a handful of matches left before another champion is crowned. 

If you haven’t been paying attention, you may be unsurprised to learn that Novak Djokovic is dominating the Wimbledon field. 

Both the tennis betting odds and the history explain why. 

Wimbledon Odds For Novak Djokovic Signal Greatness

Both before and after the main draw was released, Djokovic was priced as a -150 favorite in the table. A price like that carries an implied 60% probability that Djokovic would win the championship, with the entire rest of the field carrying a 40% chance.

That’s how dominant Djokovic has been on the London lawn. A classic “Djokovic or the field” breakdown doesn’t even cover it, statistically speaking, because it’s not a 50/50 split. 

Now that Djokovic is into the semifinals, with only six players left standing and a match against Jannik Sinner on the horizon, his odds are down to -200. (The implied odds of this are 67%.)

Compare that to the women’s tournament, where current favorite Aryna Sabalenka is merely +175 in an equal field of six.

The only questions remaining in the men’s draw are simple ones: Can anyone stop Djokovic? And how long can his dominance continue?

Djokovic History at Wimbledon

Djokovic has won seven championships at Wimbledon and is closing in on a potential eighth this week. It’ll be a mild shock if someone else lifts the trophy on Sunday.

As far as career Grand Slams go, it’s not his most successful tournament – he’s won a preposterous 10 Australian Open championships since first appearing in the main draw in 2005. 

But Djokovic’s late-career dominance has burned hottest at Wimbledon, where he has been so good that no one but him has won the men’s singles tournament since 2017. (Ultimately, the 2017 tournament proved to be the eighth and final Wimbledon championship for Roger Federer.)

Since then, it’s been all Djokovic, all the time.

It’s no coincidence that Djokovic is so good in London. Even on the back end of his career – he turned 36 in May – Djokovic is a supreme athlete and powerful volleyer. Various tennis courts have different speeds and styles, and Djokovic excels on courts that play fast. His speed and power overwhelm other players on grass, which is notoriously fast.

Wimbledon and the Australian Open are the two fastest of the Grand Slam tournaments; not coincidentally, Djokovic has won 17 of his 23 Slam titles at those two tournaments.

Conversely, Djokovic has won only three titles at the French Open and U.S. Open over the last seven seasons, dating back to the start of 2017.

Djokovic is great everywhere, but he is virtually impossible to beat on fast courts with high stakes. No place fits that description better than Wimbledon.

Sinner vs. Djokovic

Naturally, this all brings us to Thursday morning’s semifinal match between No. 8 seed Jannik Sinner and Djokovic, the No. 2 seed. 

Sinner is a very strong tour player who is making a habit of strong showings at major tournaments. The 21-year-old reached three Grand Slam quarterfinals, including Wimbledon. 

Thursday will be his first semifinal, and beating Djokovic is obviously a tall order. He was knocked out of last year’s tournament by Djokovic in the quarters, leading 2-0 before losing a five-setter, 7-5, 6-2, 3-6, 2-6, 2-6.

Djokovic is a famously slow starter – he lost the first set to Andrey Rublev earlier this week – so a Jannik Sinner Set 1 Winner bet might be interesting at +200. 

It’d be hard to recommend any other kind of bet here. Djokovic is just too good to try to go against him. 

A win on Thursday could set up a potential Djokovic vs. Alcaraz championship – another early entry in a fast-growing rivalry that would draw giant ratings. 

Djokovic/Sinner H2H (Head-to-Head)

Novak Djokovic is 2-0 head-to-head against Jannik Sinner. They played at Wimbledon in 2022 and Monte-Carlo in 2021.

Djokovic/Sinner: Wimbledon Semifinal Odds

As of Wednesday afternoon, Novak Djokovic is a -550 favorite to defeat Jannik Sinner in the 2023 Wimbledon men’s singles semifinals. Sinner is +375 to score the upset.