Subriel Matias vs. Jeremias Ponce Fight Card, Odds & Predictions

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Ukrainian boxer Wladimir Klitschko, poses with his belts, during a press conference in London, Thursday, Oct. 21, 2010.
(AP Photo/Lennart Preiss)
Anatoly Pimentel @AnatolyPimentel Feb 21, 2023, 7:47 PM
  • Subriel Matias is the heavy favorite at -400.
  • Jeremias Ponce is the overwhelming underdog at +300.
  • The winner will be the new IBF World Super Lightweight Champion.

The Armory in Minneapolis, Minnesota, will play host to the showdown between Subriel Matias (18-1) and Jeremias Ponce (30-0) for the vacant IBF World Super Lightweight Title, which headlines the boxing betting lines this weekend. This will be Matias and Ponce’s maiden opportunity to win a major boxing title in their careers.

Matias comes in as the heavy favorite in boxing odds at -400 due to his 100 percent TKO/KO percentage in all 18 wins, while Ponce assumes the underdog role at +300 despite being undefeated in his first 30 bouts. Additionally, the Puerto Rican already has experience fighting in big fights in the U.S. compared to the Argentinian, who will have his debut on American soil this weekend.

Subriel Matias Recent Fight Result

Subriel Matias made a successful professional boxing debut in December 2015 against Juan Rojas Rodriguez, scoring an opening TKO win against him. Since then, “El Orgullo de Maternillo” has racked up ten straight stoppage victories in his country and Latin America. Because of this impressive run, he earned his first U.S. bout in October 2018.

Matias was pitted against Fernando David Saucedo in his American soil debut and made quick work of him with a first-round TKO victory. He picked up three more finishes against Wilbert Lopez, Maxim Dadashev and Jonathan Jose Eniz before sustaining his lone loss to Petros Ananyan in February 2020 via unanimous decision in their ten-round affair.

The Puerto Rican knockout artist instantly rebounded from that defeat and collected two successive wins over Malik Hawkins (a sixth-round stoppage in October 2020) and Batyrzhan Jukembayev (an eighth-round finish in May 2021). These victories have primed Matias to get a rematch with Ananyan in January 2022 inside the Borgata Hotel Casino in Atlantic City.

He was able to exact revenge against his former tormentor with a devastating ninth-round corner stoppage of Ananyan to even their head-to-head matchup and close the chapter of their rivalry with that outstanding win. That victory also opened an opportunity for Matias this weekend where he can realize his dream of becoming a boxing world champion.

Jeremias Ponce Recent Fight Result

Jeremias Ponce is an undefeated up-and-coming boxing star from Argentina who holds an immaculate record of 30 wins with 20 TKO/KOs. He made a great start to his pro career with a third-round knockout of Jesus David Barraza in September 2015. He followed it with 12 successive wins from October 2015 to October 2017 before fighting for a boxing title.

In December 2017, “Jere” won the vacant WBA Fedebol Welterweight Title against Martin Ariel Ruiz via first-round TKO; then, he TKO’ed Francesco Lomasto in the ninth-round of the match to pick up the vacant IBF Inter-Continental Super Lightweight Title in February 2018. It was Ponce’s second boxing title, and he added two more belts in his next nine bouts.

Ponce defeated Martin Severo, Carlos Chaparro, Damian Yapur, Sergio Gil, Humberto Mamani, Guillermo Paz, Miguel Antin, Ramon Sena and Leonardo Amitrano en route to winning the Federacion Argentina de Box Argentina Super Lightweight Title and South American Super Lightweight Title. He also defended the WBA Fedelbol Welterweight Title twice during this stretch.

The Argentinian added another title to his collection in September 2019 after outpointing Rico Mueller and bagging the vacant WBO World Super Lightweight Title. Ponce followed this triumph with five more victories against Ruben Lopez, Jonathan Eniz, Lewis Ritson, Michael Marcano and Achiko Odikadze to set up this IBF title showdown with Subriel Matias.

Subriel Matias vs. Jeremias Ponce: Tale of the Tape

Subriel MatiasJeremias Ponce
Age 3026
Height 5'8"5'11"
Reach 71.5 inches71 inches
Record 18-1 30-0
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
TKO/KO percentage100%66%

Subriel Matias vs. Jeremias Ponce: Fight Analysis

Looking at the tale of the tape, Ponce will have a three-inch height advantage at 5-foot-11 against Matias, who stands at 5-foot-8, although Matias will enjoy a half-an-inch edge over Ponce. Record-wise, the Argentinian has an immaculate streak of 30, compared to the Puerto Rican, who already has one loss to his tally. Despite a loss in his record, Matias has a perfect finishing rate of 100 percent in contrast to Ponce’s 66 percent.

Stylistically, both have different fighting styles, with Matias being the close-range fighter, while Ponce brings a more distanced boxer who fully utilizes every inch of his reach. Also, Ponce throws a lot of stiff jabs, which setups his combinations that swarm his opponents, especially when he knows they are overwhelmed and hurt.

On the other hand, Matias closes the distance between him and his opponents to find a home for his signature left hook power shot that victimized and finished all of his 18 previous foes. He hopes to sustain this perfect TKO/KO percentage when he faces Ponce this weekend.

That same power by Matias will be the difference in this IBF title match because once he finds his range, he’ll surely rain down these vicious punches on Ponce. The young Argentine won’t be able to receive and absorb much of it, which is why a TKO/KO victory for Matias is expected, much like what the oddsmakers have put in the betting lines.

Subriel Matias vs. Jeremias Ponce: Date and Start Time

February 25, 2023, 6:00 p.m. PST

February 25, 2023, 8:00 p.m. CST

February 25, 2023, 9:00 p.m. EST

Subriel Matias vs. Jeremias Ponce: Fight Prediction

Official Prediction: TKO/KO victory for Subriel Matias.

See the entire Subriel Matias vs. Jeremias Ponce odds and wagers here.

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About the Author

Anatoly Pimentel

Read More @AnatolyPimentel

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.