- Manchester City is a +275 favorite to win the UEFA Champions League.
- Defending champions Real Madrid, who added Kylian Mbappe on a free transfer, are +300 to win their second straight title.
- I predict Arsenal will win the Champions League in the 2024-25 season.
Here’s a look at the current set of Champions League odds for the 2024-25 outright winner.
Manchester City, winners of this competition in the 2022 season, are the favorites to win this upcoming season. Currently, manager Pep Guardiola’s side is +275.
Defending champions Real Madrid, winners of two of the last three Champions League, are +300 to claim their second consecutive crown.
Only two other sides — Bayern Munich and Arsenal — are +1000 or shorter to win Europe’s top continental competition.
Champions League Odds, Outright Winner
| Champions League Team | Winner Odds |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | +275 |
| Real Madrid | +300 |
| Bayern Munich | +800 |
| Arsenal | +800 |
| FC Barcelona | +1200 |
| Liverpool | +1400 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | +1400 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | +1600 |
| Inter Milan | +2500 |
| Atletico Madrid | +2500 |
| Borussia Dortmund | +3300 |
| AC Milan | +4000 |
| Juventus FC | +4000 |
| Aston Villa | +5000 |
| Atalanta | +6600 |
| Girona | +6600 |
| VfB Stuttgart | +6600 |
| RB Leipzig | +6600 |
| Bologna FC | +10000 |
| AS Monaco | +10000 |
| Sporting Lisbon | +10000 |
| Stade Brest | +15000 |
| PSV Eindhoven | +15000 |
| Feyenoord | +15000 |
| Benfica | +15000 |
| Club Brugge | +20000 |
| Celtic | +25000 |
| Sturm Graz | +25000 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | +25000 |
Champions League Predictions, Outright Winner
I predict that Arsenal (+900) are the best bet to win the UEFA Champions League this season.
History tells us that experienced teams are the ones who go on to win the subsequent Champions League.
Dating back to the 2004-05 Champions League, all but four teams reached the quarterfinals the year prior before winning the next year. All but one reached the knockout stage.
That essentially reduces the odds list to the 10 teams: the eight that made the quarterfinals last year, Inter Milan and RB Leipzig.
Of those 10 teams, Arsenal gives me the most confidence for the best price.
Other top teams — Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Borussia Dortmund — underwent managerial changes. Liverpool (+1600) didn’t play in last year’s competition and changed managers.
While I’m concerned with Arsenal’s ability to play from behind, their defensive structure remains outstanding.
Across Europe’s Big 5 leagues, Arsenal posted the best expected goals against tally in domestic play, per fbref.com.
Manager Mikel Arteta’s side also posted the third-best expected goal differential per 90 minutes in those five competitions. When you adjust for strength of schedule, it’s the best xGDiff per 90.
They accomplished that with versatile defender Jurien Timber out for the entire season. Additionally, it appears Arsenal could further upgrade on defense via Bologna defender Ricardo Calafiori.
Another strong defensive record could help mitigate some of Arsenal’s problems when trailing.
Add in their strength against Man City last year — four of a possible six points in two league matches — and I’ll take this team to win next year’s Champions League.
UEFA Champions League Final Winners & Results
| Year | UEFA Champions League Winner | UEFA Champions League Final Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Real Madrid | Real Madrid 2, Borussia Dortmund 0 |
| 2023 | Manchester City | Manchester City 1, Inter Milan 0 |
| 2022 | Real Madrid | Real Madrid 1, Liverpool 0 |
| 2021 | Chelsea | Chelsea 1, Man City 0 |
| 2020 | Bayern Munich | Bayern Munich 1, Paris Saint-Germain 0 |
| 2019 | Liverpool | Liverpool 2, Tottenham Hotspur 0 |
| 2018 | Real Madrid | Real Madrid 3, Liverpool 1 |
| 2017 | Real Madrid | Real Madrid 4, Juventus 1 |
| 2016 | Real Madrid | Real Madrid 1, Atletico Madrid 1 [Real Won on Penalty Kicks] |
| 2015 | Barcelona | Barcelona 3, Juventus 1 |
| 2014 | Real Madrid | Real Madrid 4, Atletico Madrid 1 [Extra Time Required] |
| 2013 | Bayern Munich | Bayern Munich 2, Borussia Dortmund 1 |
| 2012 | Chelsea | Chelsea 1, Bayern Munich 1 [Chelsea Won on Penalty Kicks] |
| 2011 | Barcelona | Barcelona 3, Manchester United 1 |
| 2010 | Inter Milan | Inter Milan 2, Bayern Munich 0 |
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