- The Arkansas is a -7 point favorite vs. Mississippi St
- The Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
- TV Channel: SECN
The Arkansas Razorbacks (4-3) visit Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-6) on Oct. 26 in Starkville, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45pm EDT.
Arkansas is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).
The Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Over/Under is 57.5 total points.
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Arkansas vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arkansas | -7 -105 | 57.5 -105 | -275 |
| Mississippi State | +7 -115 | 57.5 -115 | +220 |
Arkansas vs Mississippi State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Arkansas will win this game with 69.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas and Mississippi St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas vs Mississippi State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Mississippi State will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Mississippi St vs Arkansas and all games with BetMGM
Arkansas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas have covered the 1H Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- Arkansas have covered the Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Arkansas have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Arkansas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- Arkansas has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+3.15 Units / 4% ROI)
Mississippi State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Mississippi State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Mississippi State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.60 Units / 8% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Arkansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Arkansas Player Prop Bets Today
- Tyrone Broden has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Mississippi State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mississippi State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kevin Coleman Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Johnnie Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Arkansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas is 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI).
- Arkansas is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.2 Units / 12.8% ROI
- Arkansas is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
- Arkansas is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Mississippi State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi St is 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.65 Units / 8.39% ROI).
- Mississippi State is 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -100% ROI
- Mississippi State is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
- Mississippi State is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
Arkansas: Keys to the Game vs. Mississippi State
Arkansas is 1-7 (.125) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .487
Arkansas is 2-10 (.167) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .497
Arkansas is undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .708
Arkansas is 1-9 (.100) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: .417
Mississippi State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas
Mississippi State is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .487
Mississippi State is 2-12 (.143) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .497
Mississippi State is 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .444
Mississippi State is 1-12 (.077) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .383
Matchup Notes for Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
Mississippi State has 336 receptions in 19 games (just 17.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among SEC skill players. Arkansas’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State has 336 receptions in 19 games (just 17.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among SEC skill players. Arkansas’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Mississippi State’s WRs has gained 1,396 yards on 94 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — T-24th-best among FBS WRs. Arkansas’s defense has allowed just 11.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 33rd-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas’s WRs has averaged just 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — worst among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 11.9 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas’s offense has thrown for 1,951 passing yards in 7 games (278.7 YPG) this season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 257.1 passing yards per game this season — worst among SEC defenses.
Arkansas’s offense has thrown for 1,951 passing yards in 7 games (278.7 YPG) this season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed 257.1 passing yards per game this season — 23rd-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas Skill Players have just one touchdown on 7 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Arkansas WRs have averaged 25.7 yards per reception (385 yards/15 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.7
Arkansas RBs have rushed for 6 TDs in the 1st quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Arkansas’s WRs has averaged just 12.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — worst among SEC WRs. Mississippi State’s defense has allowed just 11.9 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas TEs have averaged 22.7 yards per reception (250 yards/11 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7
Mississippi State Offensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State has 336 receptions in 19 games (just 17.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among SEC skill players. Arkansas’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.
Mississippi State TEs have no touchdowns on 26 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 10.7
Mississippi State QBs have fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Mississippi State TEs have just one touchdown on 41 receptions since the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5
Mississippi State has 336 receptions in 19 games (just 17.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among SEC skill players. Arkansas’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas Razorbacks Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 21 rushing attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Arkansas has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 14 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 12%.
Arkansas has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 49 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 11%.
Arkansas has no interceptions and 18 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 9.8
Arkansas has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 21 rushing attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
Mississippi State has sacked opposing QBs on just 2% of pass attempts (5/218) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%
Mississippi State has allowed 195.4 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 118.5
Mississippi State has averaged a sack every 43.6 pass attempts (218 Pass Attempts/5 Sacks) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 11.9
Mississippi State has allowed opponents to catch 158 of 217 passes (73% Reception Pct) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 61%
Mississippi State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 5 of 9 carries (56%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 13%
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