Baylor vs LSU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Texas Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 12, 2024, 12:23 PM

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LSU running back Kaleb Jackson (28) signals while watching a replay during the first half of an NCAA football game against Mississippi on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in Oxford, Miss. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

LSU is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Baylor
Baylor vs. LSU Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Baylor Bears (8-4) visit NRG Stadium to take on the LSU Tigers (8-4) on Dec. 31 in Houston, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

LSU is a betting favorite in the Texas Bowl, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Baylor vs. LSU Over/Under is 59.5 total points.

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Baylor vs. LSU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Baylor	+1.5 -110	59.5 -110	+100
LSU	-1.5 -110	59.5 -110	-120

Baylor vs LSU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts LSU will win this game with 58.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Baylor and LSU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Baylor vs LSU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts LSU will cover the spread with 59.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Baylor Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Baylor has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.85 Units / 70% ROI)
Baylor have covered the Spread in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 60% ROI)
Baylor have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 61% ROI)

LSU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

LSU has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.75 Units / 8% ROI)
LSU has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.40 Units / 16% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Baylor players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Baylor Player Prop Bets Today

Josh Cameron has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Hal Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Monaray Baldwin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Bryson Washington has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for LSU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best LSU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Kyren Lacy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Josh Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Kyren Lacy has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 59% ROI)

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor is 9-3 against the spread this college football season (+5.7 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Baylor is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 14.41% ROI
Baylor is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 19.7% ROI
Baylor is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -28.03% ROI

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU is 4-8 against the spread this college football season (-4.8 Units / -36.36% ROI).

LSU is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 4.37% ROI
LSU is 4-8 when betting the Over for -4.85 Units / -36.6% ROI
LSU is 8-4 when betting the Under for +3.6 Units / 27.38% ROI

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Baylor is 1-8 (.111) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .395

Baylor is 2-7 (.222) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .503

Baylor is 5-14 (.263) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .503

Baylor is undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .735

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

LSU is undefeated (5-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .699

LSU is 6-2 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .575

LSU is 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .635

LSU is 14-2 (.875) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: .620

Matchup Notes for Baylor vs. LSU

LSU’s WRs has averaged 15.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among SEC WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 13.0 RAC since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.

LSU’s WRs has averaged 15.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Power 5 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 13.0 RAC since the 2023 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU has averaged 13.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-best among FBS skill players. Baylor’s defense has allowed 13.0 RAC since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor has averaged 12.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS skill players. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst among SEC defenses.

Baylor’s TEs has gained 1,344 yards on 110 receptions (12.2 YPR) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 TEs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor’s WRs has gained 4,040 yards on 283 receptions (14.3 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-28th-best among FBS WRs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.3 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among SEC defenses.

Baylor’s WRs has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS WRs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU Offensive Stats & Trends

LSU’s WRs has averaged 15.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among SEC WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 13.0 RAC since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.

LSU has 599 receptions in 25 games (24.0 per game) since the 2023 season — best among SEC skill players. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 17.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

LSU’s WRs has averaged 15.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Power 5 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 13.0 RAC since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among P5 defenses.

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor has allowed a Completion Pct of just 17% (1 completions/6 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Baylor has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 14 of 93 attempts (15%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

LSU Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

LSU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 50 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

LSU has allowed 8 TDs in close and late situations this season– most in the SEC

LSU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (6 completions/17 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%

LSU has allowed 13 TDs in close and late situations since the 2023 season– most in the SEC

LSU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (6 completions/17 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 54%

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