- Bowling Green is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Ball State
- Bowling Green vs. Ball State Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Bowling Green Falcons (6-4) visit Scheumann Stadium to take on the Ball State Cardinals (3-7) on Nov. 23 in Muncie, IN. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00pm EST.
Bowling Green is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-115).
The Bowling Green vs. Ball State Over/Under is 57.5 total points.
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Bowling Green vs. Ball State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bowling Green | -11.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -450 |
| Ball State | +11.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +340 |
Bowling Green vs Ball State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Bowling Green will win this game with 79.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Bowling Green and Ball State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Bowling Green vs Ball State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ball State will cover the spread with 52.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Bowling Green Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+3.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Bowling Green have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bowling Green have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Ball State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Ball State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ball State have covered the Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ball State have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+2.10 Units / 38% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Bowling Green players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bowling Green Player Prop Bets Today
- Terion Stewart has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Harold Fannin Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Ball State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Ball State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Justin Bowick has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Braedon Sloan has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Braedon Sloan has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Tanner Koziol has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Bowling Green is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Bowling Green is 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -3.47% ROI
- Bowling Green is 4-6 when betting the Over for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Bowling Green is 6-4 when betting the Under for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ball State is 7-3 against the spread this college football season (+3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI).
- Ball State is 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 1% ROI
- Ball State is 8-1 when betting the Over for +6.9 Units / 62.73% ROI
- Ball State is 1-8 when betting the Under for -7.8 Units / -70.91% ROI
Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
Bowling Green is 13-5 (.722) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .584
Bowling Green is 13-4 (.765) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– 31st-best in FBS; Average: .633
Bowling Green is 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .625
Bowling Green is 11-4 (.733) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green
Ball State is 1-9 (.100) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .331
Ball State is 1-9 (.100) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .384
Ball State is 2-12 (.143) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: .455
Ball State is 3-11 (.214) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– 10th-worst in FBS; Average: .470
Matchup Notes for Bowling Green vs. Ball State
Ball State has gained 2,408 yards on 225 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — T-14th-worst among FBS skill players. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s TEs has 86 receptions in 10 games (8.6 per game) this season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 2.6 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State’s TEs has 86 receptions in 10 games (8.6 per game) this season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 15.8 receptions per game this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s TEs has averaged 11.7 targets per game this season — T-highest among FBS TEs. Ball State’s defense has allowed 4.1 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s TEs has 91 receptions in 10 games (9.1 per game) this season — best among FBS TEs. Ball State’s defense has allowed 20.5 receptions per game this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s WRs have just 68.2 receiving yards per game this season — 4th-worst among FBS WRs. Ball State’s defense has allowed 206.6 receiving yards per game to WRs this season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green Offensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green TEs have averaged 9.1 receptions per game (91/10) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
Bowling Green TEs have 19 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Bowling Green WRs have averaged a touchdown every 31.0 receptions (62 Rec/2 TDs) this season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
Bowling Green’s TEs has averaged 11.7 targets per game this season — T-highest among FBS TEs. Ball State’s defense has allowed 4.1 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-14th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green TEs have averaged 121.1 receiving yards per game (1,211/10) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 37.2
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State TEs have averaged 8.6 receptions per game (86/10) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
Ball State TEs have been targeted 6.9 times per game (69/10) in the 1st half this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.9
Ball State has gained 2,408 yards on 225 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — T-14th-worst among FBS skill players. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
Ball State TEs have 86 receptions this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Ball State’s TEs has 86 receptions in 10 games (8.6 per game) this season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 2.6 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green has allowed 120.5 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 172.6
Bowling Green has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 54 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.
Bowling Green has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 54 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.
Bowling Green has allowed first downs on 34% of rush attempts in close and late situations since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 22%
Bowling Green has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 21 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.
Ball State Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State has not recorded a sack (80 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Ball State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (40 completions/97 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
Ball State has allowed 30 TD passes this season– most in FBS
Ball State has not recorded a sack (30 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.3
Ball State has not recorded a sack (80 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15.4
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