- The Pitt is a -3.5 point favorite vs. California
- The California vs. Pittsburgh Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The California Golden Bears (3-2) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers (5-0) on Oct. 12 in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Pitt is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The California vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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California vs. Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| California | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -160 |
California vs Pittsburgh Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both California and Pitt, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
California vs Pittsburgh Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Pittsburgh will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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California Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- California has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- California have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- California has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- California has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- California has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Pittsburgh Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Pittsburgh have covered the Spread in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+2.00 Units / 35% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for California players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best California Player Prop Bets Today
- Jaydn Ott has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Trond Grizzell has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Fernando Mendoza has hit the Passing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Fernando Mendoza has hit the TD Passes Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+1.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jack Endries has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Pittsburgh players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pittsburgh Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Rodney Hammond Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Konata Mumpfield has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Gavin Bartholomew has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
California Against the Spread (ATS) Record
California is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.69% ROI).
- California is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.75 Units / 22.42% ROI
- California is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI
- California is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Pitt is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 68.18% ROI).
- Pittsburgh is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 5.47% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 20.69% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.25 Units / -28.09% ROI
California: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh
California is winless (0-8) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .309
California is 4-10 (.286) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .423
California is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .444
California is 5-10 (.333) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .542
Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. California
Pittsburgh is 2-5 (.286) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .450
Pittsburgh is 4-9 (.308) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .503
Pittsburgh is 2-5 (.286) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .501
Pittsburgh is 6-1 (.857) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .683
Matchup Notes for California vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 177 yards on 19 receptions (just 9.3 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among ACC TEs. California’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s WRs has gained 1,165 yards on 77 receptions (15.1 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC WRs. California’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh has gained 1,699 yards on 124 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC skill players. California’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.
California’s WRs has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 16th-worst among FBS WRs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 13.5 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.
California has 356 receptions in 18 games (19.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC skill players. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed just 17.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
California’s WRs has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among ACC WRs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 13.5 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.
California Offensive Stats & Trends
California Skill Players averaged 24.8 yards per reception (297 yards/12 catches) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.0
California Skill Players averaged 24.8 yards per reception (297 yards/12 catches) last week– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
California’s WRs has averaged just 11.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 16th-worst among FBS WRs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 13.5 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-31st-worst among FBS defenses.
California has 356 receptions in 18 games (19.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC skill players. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed just 17.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.
California have been sacked on 23% of pass attempts (6/26) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%
Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 177 yards on 19 receptions (just 9.3 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among ACC TEs. California’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s WRs has gained 1,165 yards on 77 receptions (15.1 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC WRs. California’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh has gained 1,699 yards on 124 receptions (13.7 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC skill players. California’s defense has allowed just 11.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 797 yards on 59 receptions (13.5 YPR) since the 2023 season — 4th-best among ACC TEs. California’s defense has allowed just 9.4 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh RBs have averaged 11.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (423 yards / 37 touches) on 2nd down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
California Golden Bears Defensive Stats & Trends
California has allowed 24 TD passes in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
California has tackled opponents for a loss on just 8 of 118 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.
California has 11 interceptions this season– most among Power Conference Teams
California has sacked opposing QBs just once on 84 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 6th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.2
California allowed 20 first down receptions last week– most among Power Conference Teams
Pittsburgh Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 17 of 83 attempts (20%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 17 of 83 attempts (20%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 11 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 25th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.
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