Central Florida vs Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 04, 2024, 11:49 AM

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Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (45) wraps up Florida running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) for a two-yard loss during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

(AP Photo/Sam Craft)

The Central Florida is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Florida
The UCF vs. Florida Total (Over/Under): 61.5 points
TV Channel: SECN

The UCF Knights (3-1) visit Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on the Florida Gators (2-2) on Oct. 5 in Gainesville, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT.

Central Florida is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The UCF vs. Florida Over/Under is 61.5 total points.

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UCF vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
UCF	-2.5 -115	61.5 -110	-145
Florida	+2.5 -105	61.5 -110	+120

UCF vs Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 54.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Central Florida and Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

UCF vs Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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UCF Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UCF has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 74% ROI)
UCF has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.10 Units / 16% ROI)
UCF have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
UCF has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
UCF have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)

Florida Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.55 Units / 7% ROI)
Florida have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for UCF players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UCF Player Prop Bets Today

RJ Harvey has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 53% ROI)
Kobe Hudson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
RJ Harvey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Xavier Townsend has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today

Montrell Johnson Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Graham Mertz has hit the Passing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Kahleil Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Eugene Wilson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Montrell Johnson Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

UCF Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Central Florida is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

UCF is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.85 Units / -18.25% ROI
UCF is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 91.95% ROI
UCF is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.45 Units / -100% ROI

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.49% ROI).

Florida is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -22.22% ROI
Florida is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Florida is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

UCF: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

UCF is 2-8 (.200) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .486

UCF is 1-4 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-18th-worst in FBS; Average: .440

UCF is 1-4 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .509

UCF is 2-8 (.200) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-19th-worst in FBS; Average: .424

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. UCF

Florida is 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-18th-worst in FBS; Average: .392

Florida is 3-7 (.300) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .543

Florida is 3-7 (.300) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .487

Florida is 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .445

Matchup Notes for UCF vs. Florida

Florida’s offense has thrown for 1,114 passing yards in 4 games (278.5 YPG) this season — 30th-best among FBS offenses. UCF’s defense has allowed 251.5 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Florida has gained 1,114 yards on 77 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — 4th-best among SEC skill players. UCF’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Florida’s TEs has 17 receptions in 4 games (4.2 per game) this season — 4th-best among SEC TEs. UCF’s defense has allowed 23.5 receptions per game this season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

UCF’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.7% of 96 attempts this season — T-5th-best among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 16.7% of attempts this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

UCF’s WRs has 181 receptions in 17 games (just 10.6 per game) since the 2023 season — T-33rd-worst among FBS WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

UCF has 287 receptions in 17 games (just 16.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

UCF Offensive Stats & Trends

UCF’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 15.2% of 461 attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-best among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.4% of attempts since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.

UCF’s WRs has gained 3,063 yards on 181 receptions (16.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big 12 WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 13.4 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida’s TEs has 17 receptions in 4 games (4.2 per game) this season — 4th-best among SEC TEs. UCF’s defense has allowed 23.5 receptions per game this season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

Florida’s QBs has thrown for 4,200 passing yards in 16 games (262.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS teams. UCF’s defense has allowed just 209.5 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Florida’s TEs has 17 receptions in 4 games (4.2 per game) this season — 4th-best among SEC TEs. UCF’s defense has allowed just 2.2 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

UCF Knights Defensive Stats & Trends

UCF has allowed 7.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (91 yards / 12 touches) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.6

UCF has sacked opposing QBs on just 2% of pass attempts (3/139) this season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

UCF has averaged a sack every 46.3 pass attempts (139 Pass Attempts/3 Sacks) this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.8

UCF has averaged a sack every 46.3 pass attempts (139 Pass Attempts/3 Sacks) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 16.1

UCF has not allowed a first down on a pass in close and late situations this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 32%

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida has intercepted 4 of 445 attempts (111.2 pass attempts per int.) since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 36.3

Florida has intercepted 4 of 445 attempts (111.2 pass attempts per int.) since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 35.2

Florida has one interception and 6 TD passes allowed this season– 2nd-worst in the SEC; Average: 1.1

Florida has allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (24 TDs allowed, and 4 INT) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.6

Florida has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 22 of 445 attempts (5%) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%