Charlotte vs Memphis Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 9

Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan (5) looks to pass during the second half of the First Responder Bowl NCAA college football game against Utah State, Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2022, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Sam Hodde)
(AP Photo/Sam Hodde)
  • The Memphis is a -18.5 point favorite vs. Charlotte
  • The Charlotte vs. Memphis Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPNU

The Charlotte 49ers (3-4) visit Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium to take on the Memphis Tigers (6-1) on Oct. 26 in Memphis, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Memphis is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -18.5 (-110).

The Charlotte vs. Memphis Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Charlotte vs. Memphis Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Charlotte+18.5 -11057.5 -110+775
Memphis -18.5 -11057.5 -110-1200

Charlotte vs Memphis Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Memphis will win this game with 91.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Charlotte and Memphis, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Charlotte vs Memphis Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Memphis will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Charlotte has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Charlotte has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Charlotte has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.90 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Memphis has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.30 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Memphis have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Memphis has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Memphis has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 6% ROI)
  • Memphis has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 25% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Memphis players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Memphis Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Seth Henigan has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Demeer Blankumsee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Roc Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Seth Henigan has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Charlotte Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Charlotte is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.45 Units / -18.59% ROI).

  • Charlotte is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 10.8% ROI
  • Charlotte is 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
  • Charlotte is 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI

Memphis Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Memphis is 4-3 against the spread this college football season (+0.7 Units / 9.15% ROI).

  • Memphis is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 4.53% ROI
  • Memphis is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
  • Memphis is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI

Charlotte: Keys to the Game vs. Memphis

Charlotte is 4-2 (.667) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .476

Charlotte is 4-13 (.235) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-26th-worst in FBS; Average: .423

Charlotte is 3-13 (.188) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 10th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .404

Charlotte is 2-9 (.182) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .474

Memphis: Keys to the Game vs. Charlotte

Memphis is undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .545

Memphis is 14-1 (.933) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .588

Memphis is 16-4 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .585

Memphis is undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .622

Matchup Notes for Charlotte vs. Memphis

Memphis’s WRs has 312 receptions in 20 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Charlotte’s defense has allowed just 17.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s WRs has averaged 14.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Charlotte’s defense has allowed 12.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s RBs has rushed for 2,733 yards on 488 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Charlotte’s defense have allowed 4.7 YPC since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte’s WRs has 168 receptions in 19 games (just 8.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 9th-worst among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense has allowed 20.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte’s QBs has thrown for 3,576 passing yards in 19 games (just 188.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS teams. Memphis’s defense has allowed 256.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte’s offense has thrown for 3,576 passing yards in 19 games (just 188.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS offenses. Memphis’s defense has allowed 256.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte Offensive Stats & Trends

Charlotte’s WRs has 168 receptions in 19 games (just 8.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 9th-worst among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense has allowed 20.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte’s QBs has thrown for 3,576 passing yards in 19 games (just 188.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 24th-worst among FBS teams. Memphis’s defense has allowed 256.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte’s offense has thrown for 3,576 passing yards in 19 games (just 188.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — T-23rd-worst among FBS offenses. Memphis’s defense has allowed 256.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 11th-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte has 304 receptions in 19 games (just 16.0 per game) since the 2023 season — T-29th-worst among FBS skill players. Memphis’s defense has allowed 20.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Charlotte’s WRs have just 120.8 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 14th-worst among FBS WRs. Memphis’s defense has allowed 188.2 receiving yards per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis Offensive Stats & Trends

Memphis QBs have 12 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Memphis’s WRs has 312 receptions in 20 games (15.6 per game) since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Charlotte’s defense has allowed just 17.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s WRs has averaged 14.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS WRs. Charlotte’s defense has allowed 12.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis’s RBs has rushed for 2,733 yards on 488 carries (5.6 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Charlotte’s defense have allowed 4.7 YPC since the 2023 season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Memphis TEs have been targeted 13 times in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Charlotte 49ers Defensive Stats & Trends

Charlotte has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 13 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Charlotte has not recorded a sack (23 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.6

Charlotte has allowed 14.3 yards per completion (1,634 yards/114 completions) this season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: 11.7

Charlotte has not recorded a sack (23 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0

Charlotte has tackled opponents for a loss on 8 of 45 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 12th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Memphis Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Memphis opponents has averaged 46.2 Passing Attempts per TD (231 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.9

Memphis opponents has averaged 46.2 Passing Attempts per TD (231 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 21.6

Memphis has tackled opponents for a loss on 47 of 205 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Memphis has allowed 5 touchdowns on 138 completions (27.6 Completions Per TD) this season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 13.1

Memphis opponents has averaged 8.0 Passing Attempts per TD (16 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– T-5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8


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