LSU vs Texas A&M Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 9

BetMGM Betting Oct 24, 2024, 4:11 PM

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Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman (15) looks to pass downfield against Auburn during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

(AP Photo/Sam Craft)

The Texas A&M is a -2.5 point favorite vs. LSU
The LSU vs. Texas A&M Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The LSU Tigers (6-1) visit Kyle Field to take on the Texas A&M Aggies (6-1) on Oct. 26 in College Station, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Texas A&M is a betting favorite in Week 9, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-120).

The LSU vs. Texas A&M Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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LSU vs. Texas A&M Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
LSU	+2.5 +100	53.5 -110	+120
Texas A&M	-2.5 -120	53.5 -110	-145

LSU vs Texas A&M Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas A&M will win this game with 58.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both LSU and Texas A&M, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

LSU vs Texas A&M Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas A&M will cover the spread with 59.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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LSU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

LSU has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 1% ROI)
LSU has hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI)
LSU have covered the 1H Spread in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.80 Units / 24% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.80 Units / 23% ROI)

Texas A&M Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas A&M has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 17% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Texas A&M has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for LSU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best LSU Player Prop Bets Today

Mason Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kyren Lacy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Garrett Nussmeier has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Josh Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Kaleb Jackson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas A&M players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas A&M Player Prop Best Bets Today

Conner Weigman has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 62% ROI)

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU is 3-4 against the spread this college football season (-1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI).

LSU is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 9.18% ROI
LSU is 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.55 Units / -45.81% ROI
LSU is 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.6% ROI

Texas A&M Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas A&M is 2-5 against the spread this college football season (-3.45 Units / -45.7% ROI).

Texas A&M is 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 10.36% ROI
Texas A&M is 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Texas A&M is 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Texas A&M

LSU is undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .700

LSU is 9-1 (.900) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– 13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .722

LSU is 15-3 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .640

LSU is 16-4 (.800) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .639

Texas A&M: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Texas A&M is 11-1 (.917) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .682

Texas A&M is 12-4 (.750) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .624

Texas A&M is 11-1 (.917) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-8th-best in FBS; Average: .648

Texas A&M is 12-2 (.857) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .676

Matchup Notes for LSU vs. Texas A&M

Texas A&M’s TEs has gained 179 yards on 12 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — 5th-best among P5 TEs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.0 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-worst among SEC defenses.

Texas A&M has averaged 12.8 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among SEC skill players. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.

Texas A&M’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.8% of 593 attempts since the 2023 season — 15th-best among FBS offenses. LSU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.6% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

LSU’s WRs has 328 receptions in 20 games (16.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS WRs. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

LSU has 468 receptions in 20 games (23.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-17th-best among FBS skill players. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.

LSU has 468 receptions in 20 games (23.4 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among SEC skill players. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.

LSU Offensive Stats & Trends

LSU’s QBs has thrown for 6,651 passing yards in 20 games (332.6 YPG) since the 2023 season — best among FBS teams. Texas A&M’s defense has allowed just 208.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among SEC defenses.

Texas A&M Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas A&M has gained 4,737 yards on 368 receptions (12.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — 4th-best among SEC skill players. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Texas A&M’s QBs has thrown for 1,303 passing yards in 7 games (just 186.1 YPG) this season — 28th-worst among FBS teams. LSU’s defense has allowed 243.6 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among SEC defenses.

LSU Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

LSU has allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (57 completions/81 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%

LSU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 31% (4 completions/13 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 52%

LSU has allowed opponents to catch 57 of 80 passes (71% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

LSU has no interceptions and 18 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 8.1

LSU has allowed a Completion Pct of 70% (57 completions/81 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 54%

Texas A&M Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas A&M has sacked opposing QBs just once on 50 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 13.9

Texas A&M tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 19 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 10%.

Texas A&M has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (2 completions/5 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best in the SEC; Average: 64%

Texas A&M has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 29 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Texas A&M has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 10 of their 216 carries (5%) this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%