- Navy is a -3 point favorite vs. South Florida
- Navy vs. South Florida Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The Navy Midshipmen (6-2) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the South Florida Bulls (4-4) on Nov. 9 in Tampa, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.
Navy is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Navy vs. South Florida Over/Under is 57.5 total points.
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Navy vs. South Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Navy | -3 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -160 |
| South Florida | +3 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +130 |
Navy vs South Florida Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Navy will win this game with 58.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Navy and South Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Navy vs South Florida Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Florida will cover the spread with 69.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Navy Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Navy has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Navy have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Navy have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Navy have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- Navy has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+1.20 Units / 4% ROI)
South Florida Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- South Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- South Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- South Florida has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.35 Units / 6% ROI)
- South Florida has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.80 Units / 12% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Navy players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Navy Player Prop Bets Today
- Blake Horvath has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Alex Tecza has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 69% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for South Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best South Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Sean Atkins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Navy Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Navy is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.8 Units / 20.69% ROI).
- Navy is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 3.68% ROI
- Navy is 7-1 when betting the Over for +5.9 Units / 67.05% ROI
- Navy is 1-7 when betting the Under for -6.7 Units / -76.14% ROI
South Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record
South Florida is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- South Florida is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -6.39% ROI
- South Florida is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI
- South Florida is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 7.95% ROI
Navy: Keys to the Game vs. South Florida
Navy is 6-2 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .517
Navy is 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .486
Navy is 9-5 (.600) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .463
Navy is 9-4 (.692) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .597
South Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Navy
South Florida is 4-2 (.667) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477
South Florida is 8-2 (.800) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .553
South Florida is 4-1 (.800) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .560
South Florida is 5-2 (.714) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .544
Matchup Notes for Navy vs. South Florida
South Florida’s RBs have 34.6 receiving yards per game this season — T-26th-best among FBS RBs. Navy’s defense has allowed just 15.4 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.
Navy’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 21.6% of 116 attempts this season — 2nd-best among FBS offenses. South Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.8% of attempts this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Navy has averaged 15.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among FBS skill players. South Florida’s defense has allowed 13.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-6th-worst among FBS defenses.
Navy’s QBs has thrown for 1,161 passing yards in 8 games (just 145.1 YPG) this season — 8th-worst among FBS teams. South Florida’s defense has allowed 293.1 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.
Navy Offensive Stats & Trends
Navy WRs have averaged just 2.0 receptions per game (40/20) since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7
Navy WRs have averaged just 1.0 receptions per game (8/8) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.5
Navy have completed passes for 20+ yards on 25 of their 116 total passing attempts (22%) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%
Navy Skill Players have averaged 18.1 yards per reception (1,033 yards/57 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Navy RBs have 22 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams
South Florida Offensive Stats & Trends
South Florida WRs have fumbled 7 times this season– T-most among FBS Teams
South Florida Skill Players have no touchdowns on 18 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 12.5
South Florida RBs averaged 11.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (248 yards / 22 touches) on 1st down last week– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7
South Florida WRs have averaged a touchdown every 27.0 receptions (108 Rec/4 TDs) this season– 6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1
South Florida TEs have averaged just 1.5 yards per reception (3 yards/2 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6
Navy Midshipmen Defensive Stats & Trends
Navy opponents has averaged 9.3 Passing Attempts per TD (28 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 3.9
Navy opponents has averaged 9.3 Passing Attempts per TD (28 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
Navy has allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (8 completions/28 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Navy has allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (8 completions/28 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 54%
Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 18 rushing attempts (17% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.
South Florida Bulls Defensive Stats & Trends
South Florida has sacked opponents 5 times in the Red Zone this season– T-most in FBS
South Florida sacked opponents 7 times last week– T-2nd-most in FBS
South Florida sacked opponents 7 times last week– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
South Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (15 completions/38 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
South Florida tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 38 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) last week– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
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