Navy vs South Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:12 PM

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South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown (17) runs for a first down during the second half of the Boca Raton Bowl NCAA college football game against Syracuse, Thursday, Dec. 21, 2023, in Boca Raton, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

(AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Navy is a -3 point favorite vs. South Florida
Navy vs. South Florida Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

The Navy Midshipmen (6-2) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the South Florida Bulls (4-4) on Nov. 9 in Tampa, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Navy is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Navy vs. South Florida Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Navy vs. South Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Navy	-3 -110	57.5 -110	-160
South Florida	+3 -110	57.5 -110	+130

Navy vs South Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Navy will win this game with 58.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Navy and South Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Navy vs South Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts South Florida will cover the spread with 69.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Navy Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Navy has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Navy have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)
Navy have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Navy have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Navy has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+1.20 Units / 4% ROI)

South Florida Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

South Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 49% ROI)
South Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.90 Units / 29% ROI)
South Florida has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.35 Units / 6% ROI)
South Florida has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.80 Units / 12% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Navy players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Navy Player Prop Bets Today

Blake Horvath has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Alex Tecza has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for South Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best South Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today

Sean Atkins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Navy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Navy is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.8 Units / 20.69% ROI).

Navy is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 3.68% ROI
Navy is 7-1 when betting the Over for +5.9 Units / 67.05% ROI
Navy is 1-7 when betting the Under for -6.7 Units / -76.14% ROI

South Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

South Florida is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).

South Florida is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -6.39% ROI
South Florida is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI
South Florida is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 7.95% ROI

Navy: Keys to the Game vs. South Florida

Navy is 6-2 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .517

Navy is 5-1 (.833) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. since the 2023 season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .486

Navy is 9-5 (.600) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .463

Navy is 9-4 (.692) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .597

South Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Navy

South Florida is 4-2 (.667) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .477

South Florida is 8-2 (.800) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .553

South Florida is 4-1 (.800) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .560

South Florida is 5-2 (.714) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .544

Matchup Notes for Navy vs. South Florida

South Florida’s RBs have 34.6 receiving yards per game this season — T-26th-best among FBS RBs. Navy’s defense has allowed just 15.4 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.

Navy’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 21.6% of 116 attempts this season — 2nd-best among FBS offenses. South Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.8% of attempts this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy has averaged 15.5 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among FBS skill players. South Florida’s defense has allowed 13.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-6th-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy’s QBs has thrown for 1,161 passing yards in 8 games (just 145.1 YPG) this season — 8th-worst among FBS teams. South Florida’s defense has allowed 293.1 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.

Navy Offensive Stats & Trends

Navy WRs have averaged just 2.0 receptions per game (40/20) since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7

Navy WRs have averaged just 1.0 receptions per game (8/8) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.5

Navy have completed passes for 20+ yards on 25 of their 116 total passing attempts (22%) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Offenses; Average: 10%

Navy Skill Players have averaged 18.1 yards per reception (1,033 yards/57 catches) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Navy RBs have 22 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams

South Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

South Florida WRs have fumbled 7 times this season– T-most among FBS Teams

South Florida Skill Players have no touchdowns on 18 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 12.5

South Florida RBs averaged 11.3 yards from scrimmage per touch (248 yards / 22 touches) on 1st down last week– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.7

South Florida WRs have averaged a touchdown every 27.0 receptions (108 Rec/4 TDs) this season– 6th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.1

South Florida TEs have averaged just 1.5 yards per reception (3 yards/2 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.6

Navy Midshipmen Defensive Stats & Trends

Navy opponents has averaged 9.3 Passing Attempts per TD (28 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 3.9

Navy opponents has averaged 9.3 Passing Attempts per TD (28 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8

Navy has allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (8 completions/28 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

Navy has allowed a Completion Pct of just 29% (8 completions/28 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 54%

Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 18 rushing attempts (17% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

South Florida Bulls Defensive Stats & Trends

South Florida has sacked opponents 5 times in the Red Zone this season– T-most in FBS

South Florida sacked opponents 7 times last week– T-2nd-most in FBS

South Florida sacked opponents 7 times last week– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

South Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (15 completions/38 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%

South Florida tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 38 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) last week– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.