Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – College Football Playoffs

BetMGM Betting Dec 28, 2024, 11:41 AM

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FILE - Oregon coach Dan Lanning reacts to a play against BYU during the first half of an NCAA college football game Sept. 17, 2022, in Eugene, Ore. Oregon and head coach Dan Lanning have agreed to a contract extension that will extend his deal through the 2028 season. The Oregon Board of Trustees unanimously approved the terms of the contract Thursday, July 27, 2023. Lanning’s new deal will pay him a total of $45 million in base salary over six years. (AP Photo/Andy Nelson, File)

(AP Photo/Andy Nelson)

Ohio State is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Oregon
Ohio State vs. Oregon Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) visit Rose Bowl to take on the Oregon Ducks (13-0) on Jan. 1 in Pasadena, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST.

Ohio State is a betting favorite in the Rose Bowl, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Ohio State vs. Oregon Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Ohio State vs. Oregon Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Ohio State	-2.5 -110	55.5 -115	-135
Oregon	+2.5 -110	55.5 -105	+115

Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 56.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ohio State and Oregon, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Ohio State vs Oregon Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ohio State will cover the spread with 53.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Ohio State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Ohio State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+2.10 Units / 8% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.00 Units / 13% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)

Oregon Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oregon has hit the Moneyline in their last 13 games (+13.50 Units / 7% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Oregon have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 22% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+2.20 Units / 8% ROI)
Oregon have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.45 Units / 9% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ohio State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ohio State Player Prop Bets Today

Will Howard has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 97% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Will Howard has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Will Howard has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oregon players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oregon Player Prop Best Bets Today

Traeshon Holden has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Jordan James has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Dillon Gabriel has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jordan James has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tez Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio State is 7-6 against the spread this college football season (+0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI).

Ohio State is 9-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.75 Units / -0.24% ROI
Ohio State is 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
Ohio State is 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI

Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon is 7-6 against the spread this college football season (+0.45 Units / 3.15% ROI).

Oregon is 12-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.5 Units / 6.93% ROI
Oregon is 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
Oregon is 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon

Ohio State is 20-3 (.870) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .570

Ohio State is winless (0-2) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .292

Ohio State is 20-3 (.870) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-6th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Ohio State is 21-2 (.913) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .627

Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Oregon is undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .432

Oregon is 14-1 (.933) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .441

Oregon is undefeated (11-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .649

Oregon is undefeated (10-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .484

Matchup Notes for Ohio State vs. Oregon

Oregon’s QBs has thrown for 3,614 passing yards in 13 games (278.0 YPG) this season — 13th-best among FBS teams. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 141.2 passing yards per game this season — best among P5 defenses.

Oregon’s TEs has 71 receptions in 13 games (5.5 per game) this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 14.8 receptions per game this season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Oregon’s offense has thrown for 3,614 passing yards in 13 games (278.0 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 141.2 passing yards per game this season — best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 3,369 passing yards in 13 games (259.2 YPG) this season — 35th-best among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 175.7 passing yards per game this season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s QBs has thrown for 3,369 passing yards in 13 games (259.2 YPG) this season — T-32nd-best among FBS teams. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 175.7 passing yards per game this season — 5th-best among P5 defenses.

Ohio State’s TEs has 33 receptions in 13 games (just 2.5 per game) this season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 16.7 receptions per game this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State has gained 3,369 yards on 266 receptions (12.7 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten skill players. Oregon’s defense has allowed 12.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon Skill Players have 100 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Power Conference Teams

Oregon WRs have caught 189 of 247 passes (77% Reception Pct) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Ohio State Buckeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State opponents has averaged 82.0 Passing Attempts per TD (328 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 23.5

Ohio State opponents has averaged 10.3 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 3.8

Ohio State opponents has averaged 10.3 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Ohio State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (39/328) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Ohio State opponents has averaged 54.2 Passing Attempts per TD (704 Pass Attempts/13 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 23.3

Oregon Ducks Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon has allowed opponents to catch just 217 of 392 passes (55% Reception Pct) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 62%

Oregon tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 44 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (3 completions/9 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 59%

Oregon has tackled opponents for a loss on 10 of 56 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 11%.

Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 44% (20 completions/45 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 53%