Old Dominion vs. Virginia Tech: Odds I Like For Week 1

There are plenty of college football odds up right now at the BetMGM online sportsbook, including dozens of spreads and totals for games in Week 0 and Week 1.

If you’re looking for several games to consider betting on, I wrote a broader piece about college football Week 1 bets that I’m eyeballing as early value spots. I’d recommend that as a good, quick read. 

Here, I’m eyeing a specific game as a potential exemplar of what I like to target, as well as how so many bettors go wrong in September. 

Virginia Tech vs. Old Dominion: Odds for Week 1

Let’s start with the very basics. Virginia Tech is a healthy -550 moneyline favorite to beat Old Dominion. 

The point spread is -13.5, which is just under the key number of 14. The total is 49.5.

Virginia Tech vs. Old Dominion: Betting Analysis

Consider what the majority of college football players know about the teams they bet on going into Week 1 of a fresh season: absolutely nothing.

If the quarterback is returning, they might know his name. They likely know the name of the head coaches and perhaps some coordinators. If there’s a defensive standout or skill player, it’s likely they are known.

But at the beginning of September, the reality is that most bettors know very little about the teams and rosters. That’s especially true with the status of the transfer portal, with more parts moving and shuffling throughout the offseason than ever before.

Instead, what most bettors are evaluating early – perhaps even subconsciously – is brand power. It’s a bettor’s perceived difference in the power between two brands.

Thus, Virginia Tech and Old Dominion provide a fascinating case study.

Virginia Tech has a rich 25 years of regional football history and is perceived as the most relevant program in the state of Virginia. Old Dominion, by comparison, is an add-on that has scored exactly one winning season of FBS football since moving up in 2014. 

Even in its diminished state, the branding power of Virginia Tech is likely to win the day for sports bettors.

A deeper look reveals that this number is likely too generous in ODU’s favor. These schools have played three times since 2018 – the Virginia Tech administration is likely keen to play local games in front of the rich recruiting area around Norfolk, where ODU is located – and Virginia Tech has never won by more than 14 points. 

In their last meeting, in 2022, ODU won outright, 20-17. 

There’s also the in-state, big brother/little brother aspect to consider. Which team do you think is more fired up to win this game – big brother Virginia Tech, or little brother Old Dominion?

In football betting, any side can win by any number of points at any time. All outcomes are on the table. But when a meaty number like this is available in what is likely to be an ugly, low-scoring game between two rusty teams, there’s only one side that I would want to have. 

Virginia Tech vs. Old Dominion: Betting Pick

I’ll be happily taking the 13.5 points with Old Dominion in its Week 1 game in Blacksburg.

If you feel like the number will go to 14, then you should absolutely consider holding out for the best number.

However, if you think this number is going to move toward ODU – as I do – then the sooner you bet it, the better off you’ll be.