- Penn State is a -10.5 point favorite vs. Boise St
- Penn State vs. Boise State Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2) visit State Farm Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos (12-1) on Dec. 31 in Glendale, AZ. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.
Penn State is a betting favorite in the Fiesta Bowl, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-115).
The Penn State vs. Boise State Over/Under is 52.5 total points.
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Penn State vs. Boise State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Penn State | -10.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | -450 |
| Boise State | +10.5 -105 | 52.5 -115 | +350 |
Penn State vs Boise State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 67.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Penn State and Boise St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Penn State vs Boise State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Boise State will cover the spread with 54.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Boise St vs Penn State and all games with BetMGM
Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+6.80 Units / 0% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Boise State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Boise State has hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- Boise State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- Boise State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Boise State have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Boise State has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Penn State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Penn State Player Prop Bets Today
- Harrison Wallace III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Drew Allar has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Julian Fleming has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Tyler Warren has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Boise State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Boise State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Ashton Jeanty has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Matt Lauter has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.25 Units / 125% ROI)
- Maddux Madsen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Maddux Madsen has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Ashton Jeanty has hit the Receptions Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Penn State is 7-7 against the spread this college football season (-0.65 Units / -4.23% ROI).
- Penn State is 11-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +9 Units / 0.64% ROI
- Penn State is 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI
- Penn State is 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI
Boise State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Boise St is 8-4 against the spread this college football season (+3.6 Units / 25.09% ROI).
- Boise State is 11-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +10 Units / 6.18% ROI
- Boise State is 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
- Boise State is 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Boise State
Penn State is 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .476
Penn State is 21-3 (.875) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .604
Penn State is 9-1 (.900) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season– 7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .695
Penn State is 11-2 (.846) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– 21st-best in FBS; Average: .635
Boise State: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State
Boise State is undefeated (5-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .389
Boise State is 11-1 (.917) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .583
Boise State is 8-1 (.889) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .444
Boise State is 13-4 (.765) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .441
Matchup Notes for Penn State vs. Boise State
Boise State’s RBs has 3 rushing touchdowns per game this season — best among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game this season — T-2nd-best among P5 defenses.
Boise State’s RBs has 22 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — T-3rd-most among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense has allowed 7 rushing TDs this season — T-3rd-fewest among FBS defenses.
Boise State’s RBs has 36 rushing touchdowns this season — most among FBS RBs. Penn State’s defense has allowed 7 rushing TDs this season — T-3rd-fewest among P5 defenses.
Penn State’s TEs has gained 1,284 yards on 110 receptions (11.7 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State’s WRs have just 110.8 receiving yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten WRs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 23.2 receiving yards per game to TEs this season — 13th-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State’s WRs has gained 1,551 yards on 97 receptions (16.0 YPR) this season — best among Big Ten WRs. Boise State’s defense has allowed just 9.0 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends
Penn State TEs have averaged 7.9 receptions per game (110/14) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
Penn State TEs have been targeted 48 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Big Ten Teams
Penn State TEs have averaged 6.7 receptions per game (181/27) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.5
Penn State TEs have averaged 7.9 receptions per game (110/14) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7
Penn State TEs have picked up first downs on 32 receptions on 1st down this season– most among Big Ten Teams
Boise State Offensive Stats & Trends
Boise State RBs have averaged 231.5 rushing yards per game (3,009/13) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 127.1
Boise State RBs have rushed for 15 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams
Boise State RBs have averaged 204.3 rushing yards per game (5,516/27) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 126.0
Boise State RBs have rushed for 36 TDs this season– most among FBS Teams
Boise State RBs have averaged 6.9 Yards per Carry (3,009 yards/436 carries) this season– T-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends
Penn State has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 452 carries (64.6 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 23.1
Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (86/748) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%
Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Penn State has allowed 4 rushing TDs on 49 carries (12.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6
Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (86/748) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%
Boise State Broncos Defensive Stats & Trends
Boise State has sacked opponents 9 times in the Red Zone this season– most in FBS
Boise State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (52/426) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Boise State has sacked opponents 52 times this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Boise State has sacked opponents 9 times in the Red Zone this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Boise State has sacked opponents 52 times this season– 2nd-most in FBS
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