Pitt vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Sports Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 21, 2024, 11:31 AM

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Toledo running back Jacquez Stuart carries the ball during an NCAA college football game against Illinois Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023, in Champaign, Ill. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

Pitt is a -9.5 point favorite vs. Toledo
Pittsburgh vs. Toledo Total (Over/Under): 51.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) visit Ford Field to take on the Toledo Rockets (7-5) on Dec. 26 in Detroit, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00pm EST.

Pitt is a betting favorite in the Sports Bowl, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-105).

The Pittsburgh vs. Toledo Over/Under is 51.5 total points.

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Pittsburgh vs. Toledo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Pittsburgh	-9.5 -105	51.5 -110	-350
Toledo	+9.5 -115	51.5 -110	+260

Pittsburgh vs Toledo Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this game with 75.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Pitt and Toledo, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Pittsburgh vs Toledo Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Pittsburgh will cover the spread with 78.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Pittsburgh Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 51% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Pittsburgh have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
Pittsburgh has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.25 Units / 0% ROI)

Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.80 Units / 68% ROI)
Toledo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.70 Units / 3% ROI)
Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 45% ROI)
Toledo has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 1% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Pittsburgh players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pittsburgh Player Prop Bets Today

Desmond Reid has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Konata Mumpfield has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Gavin Bartholomew has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kenny Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Eli Holstein has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Toledo players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Toledo Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jerjuan Newton has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Junior Vandeross III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Pitt is 7-5 against the spread this college football season (+1.45 Units / 10.94% ROI).

Pittsburgh is 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.32% ROI
Pittsburgh is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Pittsburgh is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Toledo is 5-7 against the spread this college football season (-2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI).

Toledo is 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -0.74% ROI
Toledo is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Toledo is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo

Pittsburgh is 1-8 (.111) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .455

Pittsburgh is 2-9 (.182) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .483

Pittsburgh is 5-14 (.263) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .432

Pittsburgh is 4-11 (.267) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– 10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .431

Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh

Toledo is 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .525

Toledo is 18-5 (.783) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526

Toledo is 9-7 (.562) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .427

Toledo is 9-1 (.900) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .554

Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh vs. Toledo

Toledo’s TEs has gained 970 yards on 63 receptions (15.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among FBS TEs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.

Toledo’s TEs has gained 970 yards on 63 receptions (15.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among FBS TEs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 12.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh’s TEs has 55 receptions in 12 games (4.6 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 2.5 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh’s offense has averaged 2.2 passing TDs per game this season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 1.2 passing TDs per game this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh’s TEs has gained 474 yards on 55 receptions (just 8.6 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among ACC TEs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 9.4 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends

Pittsburgh Skill Players have caught 8 touchdown passes in close and late situations this season– most among Power Conference Teams

Pittsburgh Skill Players have caught 11 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Pittsburgh Skill Players have caught 8 touchdown passes in close and late situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Pittsburgh RBs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends

Toledo RBs have fumbled 5 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Toledo RBs have averaged just 3.7 Yards per Carry (1,101 yards/297 carries) this season– 3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Toledo TEs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Pittsburgh Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends

Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 28 of 126 attempts (22%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 9%

Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 28 of 126 attempts (22%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 18 of 79 attempts (23%) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 18 of 79 attempts (23%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in FBS; Average: 10%

Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%

Toledo Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

Toledo opponents averaged 34.2 Passing Attempts per TD (411 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18.8

Toledo opponents has averaged 30.9 Passing Attempts per TD (803 Pass Attempts/26 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.0

Toledo has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (447 completions/803 attempts) since the 2023 season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Toledo allowed a Completion Pct of just 53% (219 completions/411 attempts) in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

Toledo has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 32 rushing attempts (6% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.